BOZmail 17th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY APRIL 17th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.9362 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2968 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

FRIDAY play in Crisis Corner

17-24 TAMPA BAY DOWNS

I think I have accepted now that my initial statement on 10% stakes for US racing was very wise and whilst lay ratio remains questionable also, I am thinking of ditching the LIM approach here altogether and trying an outsider back perm system instead. Give it a day or two more but I think in view of this not likely to be a wind up toward a resumption of UK racing now but a serious long term fill in operation, I may review the whole Kaboodle and start accepting that lockdown is a long term scenario and that maybe suspension until resumption is the wisest course. I may still publish every day though. Brace yourself for a period of serial fiction! The practical fact remains that sub cycle will be extended by exact same number of days we miss because of the lock down once resumption occurs. 

Sum Overture is the start of my new look for longshots. Found one at Tampa on Wednesday and just have to do it on here now. Sum Overture will need a return to old form but new trainer is a Tampa man and Jockey looks promising too. Still picking races with questionable favs for now. Game Day Drama is definitely that as the archetypal nearly man. Jockey booking doesn’t inspire and there are several to act as LIM cover.

Recommendations:

£2 LAY on GAME DAY DRAMA

£1 BACK on SUM OVERTURE

The Boz’s April US  Racing LIM results: (£100 bank)

1st:  -£4-85  (-£4-85) Lay @ 2.54 : Back @ 44.0

2nd:  NO BET

3rd: +£0-96  (-£3-89) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 8.7

4th: – £2-20  (-£6-09) Lay @ 1.6 : Back @ 14.0

5th: +£0-48  (-£5-61) Lay @ 2.16 : Back @ 5.15

6th: -£2-88   (-£8-49) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 13.0

7th: +1-45    (-£7-04) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 12.0

8th:  +0.98   (-£6-06) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 25.0

9th-12th: NO PLAY DUE TO ILLNESS

13th: +1-96 (-£4-10) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 20.0

14th: – 1-96 (-£6-06) Lay @ 1.48 : Back @ 7.2

15th: -3.00 (-£9-06) Lay @ 2.5

16th: NO BET

Crisis Corner LIM Strike Rates: Lays 12/20 = 60% : Backs 0/11 = 0%

Good luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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