BOZmail – 16th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 16th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.2887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.536 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-55 WETHERBY

Bozmail Rule number six on Tuesday. Opposing the fav was the bit I got right about the play and that’s the bit I didn’t back. Numpty sometimes! Market told us Bailey’s horse wasn’t fit and the guesswork continues on Wednesday in this novice chase of all debutantes but at least I know something about the horses this time!

Sam Spinner will likely be odds on but it’s sharp for him distance wise and Beakstown is a quick one to oppose him with. As a staying hurdler, Sam Spinner would likely munch these on class and his rating amplifies that. Not without his quirks however and unseated a couple of times over hurdles and this race will certainly test him on his debut at the new code.

In many ways, my favourite sort of LIM race to take on with a favourite like that. There is guesswork and unknown element involved but we are playing the price and do I want 8/11 about any horse unproven over fences? No I do not. Beakstown is credible cover with black type victory to his name already and much more likely to be in love with the distance.

The Boz however plays on an unexposed to follow horse from last season. Regulars will remember Return Ticket who has already won for us and was a tremendous second LTO behind Lucky Lover Boy who franked the form winning twice more after that and was getting bundles of weight from Return Ticket who oozed class, tried hard and would have won but for the weight given.

The two races he did win over hurdles have also had their form franked. First was against Swaffham Bulbeck who is part owned by a Bozmailer and a horse you can put in your notebooks. SB ran a good second to the Jefferson horse and has won since. RT also beat Normal Norman who ran on the flat on Tuesday and was backed off the boards to win a two miler. Nearly did. I stayed off it because the ground looked all wrong but Norman managed to run a blinder in defeat and is obviously another good horse to follow. Return Ticket also won a bumper that had his future stamped all over it. Watch that back on the racing channel archive and if you aren’t already a convert, you soon will be. Same owner/trainer as Waiting Patiently. Being campaigned same way. Might be even better class. 10/1 for tomorrow’s chase debut.

On hurdles times, can be expected to be at least competitive with Sam Spinner. If tuned up, he can win. 10/1 looks huge to me despite the unknowns. I’m going in.

Win or lose, we learn from this one and if he wins as he might, we won’t get that kind of price again. 

Been a scratty few days in which I’ve lost control of the recovery I’d made in October. Finally, a proper horse race and a chance to get it back on course!!  

Recommendation:

0.75pt LAY on SAM SPINNER (around 1.8 : no greater than 2.4)

0.25pt BACK on RETURN TICKET (around 11.0)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 172/263 = 65.39% :   BACKS: 49/178 = 27.52%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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