BOZmail 16th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

MONDAY NOVEMBER 16th  2020

 Thanks to those who pointed out I settled my Carrolls Milan trade incorrectly on Saturday. Wondered how come I had more dosh in my account. Figures now corrected. Getting old now. Sums and spelling were always my strong suits.Both riddled with errors these days!

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 109/149 = 73.15%  Backs : 30/94 = 31.91%

2-20 PLUMPTON

Well wasn’t that what the doctor ordered?! All the things I usually say at such moments. How good disciplined break even bank management during downtimes means this is all profit when a beezer back comes in. We aren’t paying for any losers of note. And as the first ‘proper’ LIM return of the year, well done to all who have kept the discipline and kept the faith. Very much part of it.

I say well done also to those who got the 32.0 that was traded before the off on For Pleasure. Unlike Prettylittlething the other day this was a misguided market drift although especial big pat on the back well done to all those who totally kept the faith and took some of the 1.19 and shorter available to lay Third Time Lucki in running. I didn’t do either of those although my pre race back averaged out at 25.0 with which I am reasonably happy. Never thought of the 1.19 lay.Too busy praying For Pleasure’s class would hold out! It did. He stays on the list the boy does (Fidelio Vallis drops off) and may well have Festival aspirations now because they rarely win from the front like that at Cheltenham. Staying on up the hill after a wobble at the second last was serious quality. I think the second is a good horse too although as a Skelton, he’ll always be skinny price so I pass on him for the list at this stage!

On instead to an anti-climactic Monday at Plumpton where I am now in a position to manage a monthly LIM bank to pursue a maximum for pretty much the first time all year. And in sight also of doubling the LIM starting bank for the year which hasn’t looked likely throughout and has only never been achieved once before in the history of annual LIM score.

And I take on Court Duty here who was reasonably impressive LTO but has much more on his plate now and a penalty to shoulder to boot. If I were to have a back it would be on Wenceslaus despite his very disappointing effort LTO. Like For Pleasure he may have had excuse in ground and stable form. The latter is a bit better now and he gets ground and course to his liking this time so could easily bounce back but is about right price at 7/1 because of his mark now. Bad Boy Du Poldu, Le Coeur Net and Darling Alko all look competitively poised with Bad Boy in particular looking well weighted and treated and noticeably coming out again after only a ten day break. Chomping at the bit and the Moore stable thrive on such.

But a very open race is the main conclusion and thus a seriously tough one for Court Duty to win under his penalty. And I’m in bank management mode now. Only half way through and focussed on November 2020 being a proper LIM month!!

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on COURT DUTY (around 2.8 or lower. Keep the discipline and get the best price that you can)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory – Entered @ Warwick (Nov 18)

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River – Entered @ Warwick (Nov 18)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) – Entered @ Fakenham (Nov 17)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Ribble Valley – Entered in the Fighting Fifth,Newcastle (Nov 28)

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

1-15 CHELTENHAM – SOLDIER OF LOVE @ 10/3 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 11.5 : 0.15pt hedge @ 8.2 : P/L = +0.049pts

                                       THE BUTCHER SAID @ 13/2 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 12.0 : 0.125pt hedge @ 10.0 : P/L = +0.0245pts

Fav was in a different class and although the Butcher Said came to deliver a challenge, jumped poorly at the worst possible time and that would be as far as it goes for these two for now. Not going to win Championship races this year so scrubbed from the list for a while. No complaints of either. Won my trading profits from both.

3-00 CHELTENHAM – PISGAH PIKE @ 33/1 – 0.1pt BACK – Non Runner

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +49.2186points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 31.8913 points (+11.8913 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 47.0878 points (+39.0878 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3885 points (-0.6115 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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