BOZmail – 16th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY MAY 16th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

5-30 FONTWELL

Hunter Chase night at Fontwell is one of my favourite meets of the year and I shall come to it on Thursday night celebrating my century of successful lays on the service at last. The nervous nineties has been tough but got there in the end I have. So onward and upward.

This race looks on paper between Steeles Terrace and Play the Ace with the latter a steal in terms of class receiving weight also and with the more experienced jockey on board. You have to forgive Play the Ace his hunter chase debut LTO for which he will presumably come on and Steeles Terrace is the younger and less exposed with a course and distance win but that jockey booking (not the horses normal jockey) does put me off and so do times and the past class of Play The Ace. Ran in a black type race in November last year and was runner up in a class 2 over the distance time before at a speed figure that would win this fairly easily so has to have deteriorated a lot in past six months not to be considered a good thing here.

There is doubt however and the golden rule at Fontwell Hunter Chase night is to seriously consider the best jockey.That would be Gina Andrews by some distance and she rides for the best trainer in Donald McCain. An old boy now is Witness in Court but ran ok LTO behind Monsieur Gibraltar at a higher class than this and has back class not that far adrift of Play the Ace. Is certainly the value in the race at 7/2.

Big day Thursday with the next leg of the staggered acca also going. See below.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on STEELES TERRACE (around 2.8 : not greater than 3.2)

0.1pt BACK on WITNESS IN COURT

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 100/146 = 68.49% :   BACKS: 24/94 = 25.53%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.8478 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 3)

2-35 PERTH – LAY on JERSEY BEAN at around 2.5

I was so impressed with Get out the Gate on his chase debut that I nearly went back in this but the value is to lay the Sherwood horse Jersey Bean on his chase debut and have the Richards horse Teddy Tee – who is by no means out of it on paper – on our side.Probably wants soft ground but has the chase experience at a decent level and receives weight from GOTG. Will be with us should GOTG misfire to exert his experience over the Sherwood debutante.

I’ll leave you to do your own Maths to determine stake and leave lay liability whatever you are above bank of ten points at this stage. My stake will be around 0.56 points to cover my liability of 0.8478 points.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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