BOZmail – 16th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY MAY 16th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.7629 points 

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.1235 points

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LESS IS MORE: 

1-35 Auteuil

Well, I’ve unpadlocked the banks and decided to put myself and the show back on the road. There’s only so much twiddling the thumbs that can be justified and the more and the longer this goes on, the more I fear that we are moving into serious unknown territory where past precedence will be of little help. Where angels fear to tread however and at the end of the day it is perhaps just best to be treated like a losing run. The only way out of the mire is to soldier on. Accept that it ain’t going to be like you thought it would be and what you planned for but believe that if you stay open to learning and the principles of education you will still be ok.

The trouble with me and French jump racing is the same as with US racing I now find. Despite doing well in the practice days I’ve had at Compiegne and Angers, these are still tracks I don’t have ‘the feel’ for so things can happen that I haven’t factored and the biggest one with this race – which looks a good LIM candidate on paper – is that I don’t know the horses. And the jockeys are a complete mystery!

So the race read is a purely on paper exercise but I have to say that it has a good feel to it in that respect and so whilst I lack confidence in my ability to accurately read the result, I do have the market value on my side and even when you you are working in familiar territory, that is one of the areas you most want to be giving you the positive vibe.

Whether you follow me and play this race however is up to you. The staking is the thing and as ever I can only recommend caution because those ignorances regarding horses and jockeys can definitely scupper things as we saw in my US work. 

That’s the caveats explained however. Now for why I have decided to unpadlock the banks apart from the simple fact that you can’t sit around not tipping for ever. Eventually you have to do something!

The race does look like Figuero is a talking horse. I’ve watched his past efforts and he is easily authenticated as what they say he is. An improving sort with Grade one success in the bank already. Might simply outclass these and is short priced fav accordingly around 2.68 as I write. Get that down as low as you can because I do think there is scope to take him on. His other positive is his stable who have come out after lockdown firing bullets although 3/25 does mean loads of losers as well and again that is what LIM looks for in a fav to take on. The hype horse who is too short for his chance. Figuero does fit that bill. You can take some comfort from Nicolle having another one in the race too. His second strings have been winning as well in the week we’ve had so far and at 10/1 ish, Poly Grandchamp is that alright with second string jockey on as well but another horse on an upward profile so that will only need to jump well and in rhythm whilst the fav skews a few and the upset is perfectly possible.

I’ve unpadlocked also because you can say that about several. Ebonite also has comparable times and form to the fav – if not the same current form plusses in jockey and trainer – and the actual proven class horse of the race is Carriacou who is on the comeback trail from a dormant stable so is a can win easily if ready for it but could also quite easily be in serious need of the run.

But that’s three to take the fav on with if he doesn’t fire – and like all of them, he is also on comeback trail and could easily not perform to optimum. And then there’s Feu Follet who is my idea of the value back in the race. And here’s why. First he has a sexy name. Will o’ the wisp in English and wouldn’t you want a horse called that in your back yard?! I would anyway! His trainer is Guillame Macaire who is the one I do know more about courtesy of regular forays to England. Genius trainer with solid percentages and scores over many years but also not a stable to follow level stakes.

His horses regularly over bet. What you want with him is an unfancied one who can be given a squeak and who the pundits are writing off. Feu Follet fits that. Been struggling in this top class class grade they say which is true enough in recent form but if you go back to last September however, you will see him finishing second to Figuero over course and distance in similar soft ground beaten just three lengths.

Weighted today to overturn that and this is where Macaire’s genius comes in if he has had a real go at getting this one ready. No way of knowing that and stable has started slow after lockdown but the exchange is suggesting we might get double figure price and on as big as 26/1 as I write (unmatched) so definitely one you should do market watch on and get absolute best price you can.

So a classic LIM on paper. I did tell you it was so. I’ve done my on paper homework and found an angle we can play. I just wish I felt a bit more confident about the result but when you’ve been a tipster as long as I have you are familiar with that feeling. Sluggish spells do have to be gotten out of. This one is not of my own making (although I probably shouldn’t mention that my luck has also deserted in past couple of days after most weeks of lockdown actually behaving itself quite well!) so the attempts to feel gung ho ought to be easier, But somehow they ain’t. Murphys Law is lurking and he specialises in making sure you don’t win if you want it too much! 

It’ll either be a good call or it won’t be. Your decision which way you think it’ll go given the climate we are in.

You can take heart I guess from the fact that I have decided to get back in the saddle now and not worry if things don’t go too well for a while. Staking caution will be exercised. And I’m confident as always that whatever difficulties they throw at us long term, I will find ways to be ahead of the game.

This year will be an exercise in showing patience I fancy but you never know. If you ain’t in it, you can’t win it! Good luck to us all.

Recommendation:

0.22pt LAY on FIGUERO ( as low as you can get and better than 2.7 preferably)

0.1pt BACK on FEU FOLLET (double figure price hopefully and keep an eye on anything over 20/1 which is a possibility)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

P.s. As well as the Prix Marut, I also looked long and hard at the 1-05 at Autieul where Nimes is very short and can also be taken on arguably by Shawinigan.

Reveley in the saddle though on the fav which is a plus and in the end I deemed it second best play of the day. Perfect territory for Murphys Law however when I disclose that and those who don’t like the lay the favs in either and want a leisure pound double might prefer Shawinigan and Feu Follet in that department. Their names suggest it. I’m putting all my faith in Will o’ the wisp however! And I’m leaving the leisure pound double alone. Come on Murphy, do your worst!!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

April         : –  0.1733 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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