BOZmail – 16th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY MARCH 16th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

2-15 FONTWELL

Henryville looked for a moment like he was going to win! Pecked at the last.No complaints. Had a compound 1.88 lay on Sideways and he just proved good enough. Never any shame in taking one like that on. Just didn’t quite go our way.James Bowen gave it a fair ride.

On to Saturday and the BOZmail goes back to normal with the added proviso as advertised that the NH To Follow list will be taken off the sheet as from tomorrow. Feel free to take a copy of the current list for your records and I will be publishing additions and deletions as we go along under the heading of horses to trade nexttime out.You’ll see that Henryville just got on! And there have been several deletions as part of a general thinning out as we head toward the summer jumping and a sparser bulk. I will keep my list for feeding into LIM and also be starting a list soon now for the Flat season. This is usually a smaller list anyways but any horses of interest will continue to be flagged up FYI under the to trade next time out banner. I won’t however be counting those trades on the stats of this sheet from now on and I won’t be publishing entries as I’ve been doing up to now either, so onus will be on yourselves to keep an eye where they run and of course there are plenty of tracker alert apps you can use to keep you in the loop with this way of playing.

The Boz meantime starts to put his full weight behind the daily LIM and staggered acca approaches to try to build on the start the service has made and post a meaningful profit by the end of the 12 months. Starting Saturday with this play at jolly old Fontwell with two horses we know well.

Le Coeur Net was a successfully taken on fav here LTO where he bombed in last beaten 24 lengths (done same all three runs at Fontwell) and carries the same 8lb penalty here when you take Rex Dingle’s loss of claim into account. Must carry 12 stone plus which is always a stopping weight and although the opposition don’t amount to a great deal, both Sky full of stars and Argyle can be competitive for the local big stables of Gordon and Moore. But it is to the old boys we look for our back and Finnegan’s Garden and Ut Majeur Aulmes have jockeys on board who do well here. The latter would in particular not surprise me as winner but at 25/1, I cannot resist the serious elder statesman Yourholidayisover who is 10lb out of the handicap but has been raised that amount for its run behind Bredon Hill Lad 10 days ago. “Never been much cop” says the Racing Post so that should keep the price out but was backed LTO and came two out with a winning looking run only to stay on well behind our boy who was also heavily backed. Is only third run for Lady Brooke who is a Fontwell stalwart and she may have found something new in the old boy to be running him again so soon. I’ll take the chance at that price.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on LE COEUR NET (around 2.9 : no greater than 3.6)

0.1pt BACK on YOURHOLIDAYISOVER

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 63/91 = 69.23% :   BACKS: 14/58 = 24.13%

THE BOZ’s CHELTENHAM BLOG – DAY EIGHT:

My list of To Follow entries then is as follows:

Day one:

Itchy Feet -33/1 for the Supreme Novices – 0.1pt WIN

(3rd – Good start for traders and each way backers! I backed 0.1pt @ 42.0 and traded back in running as he jumped the last into 2nd place – 0.4pt @ 6.0)

Lady Buttons- 11/1 for the OLBG – 0.1pt WIN

(4th – No profit here but ran an honourable race in moving through the field into fifth allowing a hedge out. I took it given how well Ruby was going! Just goes to show.

0.1pt @16.5 – 0.1pt LAY @ 11.0. Break Even.)

Indian Opera – NON RUNNER

Knocknanuss – 16/1 for the Arkle – 0.05pt WIN

(Another triumph for trading. Backed 0.05pt@75.0 and because he had his spell in the lead while fancied horses fell, traded back 0.1pt @ 25.0)

Day two:

Lady Buttons – NON RUNNER

Tombstone – NON RUNNER

Day three:

Frodon – 13/2 for the RYANAIR – 0.1pt WIN

(How did you get on with your trade? As I predicted, it was pretty good practice especially in bullish and confident mood as I was after The Jugo yesterday.I had my 0.1pt @ 6.8 but when Aso came to him at the last I asked for and got 0.1pt @ 9.6. Then I roared my brains out!! Was pretty sure he’d run up the hillbased on previous and with Nicholls in such form but I had posted 1pt LAY@1.2 just in case – because Aso was running a mighty race too – which I didn’t manage to cancel. Net profit = +1.24 pts)

Vinndication – 9/1 for the JLT – 0.1pt WIN

(Unplaced – Backed 0.1pt@ 10.0 : 0.1pt@6.2 = Break even)

Lostintranslation – 7/2 for the JLT – 0.1pt WIN

(2nd – Backed 0.1pt @ 5.0 : Hedged 0.5pt @ 1.2 = +0.4pt)

Day four:

Elegant Escape – 14/1 for the Gold Cup – 0.1pt WIN

(Backed @ 15.0 ; Hedged in running -0.1pt @ 8.0 = Break even)

Tombstone – NON RUNNER

Back to Normal now!

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.0775 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changingand I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappearwith regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet

Frodon

Ask Paddington – Entered for Newcastle (Mar 16)

Ribble Valley

La Bague au Roi

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC  

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova   

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Exeter (Mar 18)

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan – Entered for Newcastle (Mar 16)

Henryville

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HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Today’s running trades:

3-45 NEWCASTLE – Ask Paddington

4-55 NEWCASTLE – Rainy Day Dylan

I’ve waited a long time for Ask Paddington who was flagged up on my bumper to bumper system last year and showed a good attitude when winning LTO. That form hasn’t held up well however and this is a step up in class and a big challenge. I considered the race for LIM but have decided on a simple trade as best policy on Ask Paddington. Take best price you can get and hedge at preferential odds. Likewise on Rainy Day Dylan whose chance is more encouraging but wouldn’t be a stable star. Mulholland’s horses are however coming nicely into form now.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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