BOZmail – 16th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY MARCH 16th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.4246 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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LESS IS MORE: Monday play

2-30 SOUTHWELL

I know from talking to you that a few others joined me in taking over the odds on Ulverston which was risky before the off and looked a calamitous mistake a furlong out but my race read fought back and ultimately looks like I might have been right judging him third best. Thought the stewards were right in their judgement as he pushed (and thus cheated) his way to the win. We were still bloody lucky to get away with that one though even though,as I’ve told a few who’ve been in touch, I would have coped with it going tits up. Largely I’m impressed with myself for going small stake on it. My race read said Ulverston was a cert to finish ten lengths adrift and I contemplated a 0.5pt bullish lay. Boz the cautious bank manager saves the day and Boz the picker came out smelling of roses as well as back up LIM to this was laying Just a Par in the Hunter Chase and he won and kept the race. With the way the trade went as well, it’s been quite a day! I thought it were all over with drama after Cheltenham and the coronavirus behind closed door news.

Well done if you got the lay on Ulverston at 1.04 by the way as I know a few of you play that way. That was a mighty call but maybe you got even luckier than the rest of us!

Murphys Law might dog me but I also benefit from that maxim that the harder you graft, the luckier you get so I’ve put my back into sticking to the winning lays run plan after being let off the hook on Sunday. This Handicap Chase looks potentially like a double lay again on the front two. It might be tight between which starts favourite but I’m more in favour of the lay on Twotwothree whose mark is going to take a while to reduce back to level he has proven he can win at and whose stable/jockey combination doesn’t inspire. Greenall languishing low on the horses running to form past 14 days index. The Frost/Wadham combination looks the stronger.Both look ok on the ground although Twotwothree will perhaps not enjoy any more rain as his plod through heavy at Warwick looked painful  whereas Little Light’s LTO behind Ibleo has taken several form boosts.

If I were to back, I’d be hard pressed between the other three who all have marks to win from but current poorish form to overcome. Chozen’s second time after wind op might be the clincher but after Sunday’s reprieve, I’ll stick to the lay only plan for this week to try and get us back around the 66% mark that we need to be at for the long term.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on TWOTWOTHREE (around 3.5. Less if you can get it and probably not more than 4.2)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 21/34 = 61.76%  Backs: 8/25 = 32%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

8th:     +0.22 (+0.529) Lay not matched : Back @ 3.2

9th:     -0.208 (+0.321) Lay @ 1.79 : Back @ 4.1

10th:   -0.1 (+0.221) Back @ 12.0

11th:   +0.735 (+0.956) Lay @ 1.28 : Backs @ 10.0 & 13.0

12th:    RACING ABANDONED

13th:   -0.175 (+0.781) Lay @ 1.7

14th:   +0.147 (+0.928) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 12.0

15th:   +0.147 (+1.075) Lay @ 5.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op 

Verdana Blue 

Maire Banrigh*  

Thyme Hill* 

Nordano* 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Lostintranslation* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Magic of Light* – Entered for Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill – Entered for Taunton (Mar 17)

Quick Wave 

It’safreebee 

Captain Zebo

Ellens Way

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NH TO FOLLOWS/TRADE for Sunday:

3-25 MARKET RASEN – ITS’AFREEBEE – 0.1pt BACK @ 8/1

(Backed @28.0 : 0.025pt  hedge before the off @ 24.0 : 0.3pt @3.0 in running) 

= P/L = + 0.2205pt

Couldn’t believe my eyes the price Its’afreebee drifted to and carried on drifting after I settled on my bet and my price. BSP returned 36.88!! Just goes to show. Decided on a quarter hedge before the off as I expected enough of a run to get chance to hedge the rest back in running but in fact, travelled so well, I thought might win it a couple of times in the race. Finally cracked when the odds on clattered that hurdle and spent the run in regretting not hedging to bigger stake as I never thought he’d get there on the run in, long though it is at Market Rasen. Twisty nicked it. Just. Good ride by him ultimately I thought.Two extraordinary races in one day on the Bozmail. You did better than me here if you backed each way!! Never thought of that!

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 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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