BOZmail – 16th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY JULY 16th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

8-00 WINDSOR (MONDAY NIGHT)

Ok so I’ve seen Sunday’s race now and we did get lucky there as Emerald Rocket bumped into one and Coleman had a rare burst of over confidence. He thought he was on one and could sit idly out the back knowing he could scythe through when he liked. He saw Kaizer sweating up beforehand and running free and didn’t fear him one iota. Had I been watching live, I’d have shared the certainty that Emerald Rocket would come past. But he didn’t and Kaizer thus makes our to follow list. Must be something about him on hurdle debut. Worth watching to see if he does it again NTO.

Less lucky on Monday as the whole field beat Boston George and I remain in cautious but convincing mode because the one that won was the one I wouldn’t have backed again.  It’s at times like this I should buy a lottery ticket!

Let’s see if I can get it right again Tuesday except that I’ve just trawled Tuesday’s fare and found nothing to play despite a plethora of qualifiers. Taken me two hours since I arrived back in the office but I’ve rejected all which has caused a switch of plan. I was intending to start a new staggered lay acca tonight with the second best from yesterday’s study which runs tonight at Windsor if I still fancied it on deeper look and I not only do but more so now as they are backing Sendeed and he’s down to 5/4 so we can take it on with less liability. I’ll bring it in as Tuesday’s LIM because the study has also thrown up a value back on Mannaal who has to be forgiven a poor run LTO on soft ground but showed a lot of promise before that behind Birch Grove who has franked form since. Simon Crisford also jocks up Megan Nicholls to take off 3lb which I find very interesting. His stable is running at a cracking 94% running to form in past 14 days and Mannaal is proven over Course and Distance and has experience in Handicaps and Listed races to expose any greenness in handicap debutante Sendeed who looks to me to have a fair question mark over distance as well on breeding as a Shamardal who only won a mickey mouse race LTO at odds of 1/6. Could easily be an overrated talking horse and has two others to beat in Dilmun Dynasty who has just as good a profile on handicap debut and the battle hardened Fraser Island who has also seen money come in for him during the day and has  decent handicap form and back to near his last winning mark over a furlong shorter in a respectable time. 

And so,

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on SENDEED (around 2.25 : no greater than 2.6)

0.1pt BACK on MANNAAL (around 8.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

14th:   +0.49 (+3.835) Lay @ 1.84

15th:  +0.245 (+4.08)  Lay @ 2.72

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 127/189 = 67.19% :   BACKS: 36/126 = 28.57%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

Ennistown

Francky Du Berlais

Kaizer

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick – Entered at Hamilton (Jul 18) & Newbury (Jul 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 14: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the next opportunity emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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