BOZmail – 16th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

WEDNESDAY JANUARY 16th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-35 PLUMPTON

I had high hopes for Tuesday after I got up to find Bouchard had crushed Peng in the tennis. Sadly it all went downhill from there and the caveats I gave hopefully prevented too much damage. I hedged out of the staggered acca bet myself because I could see that Cibulkova was well below par and when Johnson didn’t turn up at Newcastle, likewise took it easy. The omission of jumps due to low sun didn’t help there either and it was the failure to assert at the fences that cost Jammin Masters. I can’t help concluding that he wasn’t given the right kind of assistance from the saddle but that may be my pocket talking! End of the day, I popped out of the bubble again somehow and picked the wrong race. The fav got beat in both the others and in fact all three now I think. Not my day…..

With four out of the last six LIM days giving losses, slight alarm bells are ringing and I’ve been here in January before. Thought I might have sidestepped it this year but that winning lay streak sucked me in. Got to be mighty careful now I think to ensure the slide doesn’t set in.  

Things don’t get any easier on Wednesday and I don’t like either official LIM races and did consider a no play day but we do have a to follow horse in this Plumpton handicap and although it has 8 runners and I’m not over struck by its chance, I do feel the fav is vulnerable so I’ll make an exception and try to get us back on track. Mauna Kea has gone up 21lb for its last two wins and whilst both were decisive, form of the latter has not been bolstered since and that’s one mighty penalty to be conceded in better class here. Will take a good one to carry it off and although I’ve seen it done and got these wrong in the past, there looks to be several that can take advantage here and we do have Ruby Yeats on our side!

This is one of those picks that I get excited about when I’m in form (and oh how quickly it changes to feeling like you are not in this game!) because she went on my to follow list after a stunning win at Southwell in December 2016. Came from out of the clouds that day and such a big imposing sort, made such a picture. First run from my ‘stable’ she looked to have it won at Hereford in the follow up only to be chinned by none other than Verdana Blue who also went on my to follow after that and has since led to what we achieved on Boxing Day.

All that is when the game is going great! Ruby Yeats however has been disappointing ever since looking like one of those that needs stoking up for a sustained run in the slop and not getting much of the right kind of assistance from the saddle. Ran well enough on chase debut at Taunton last February (jumping out to left suggesting an aversion to running right handed?) finishing second to Vocaliser who franked the form the following month with a win at Kempton (but hasn’t done much since) whilst Ruby then disappeared into obscurity and hadn’t run well again until LTO when I clocked Jamie Moore giving her a serious shuffle at Fontwell where she stayed on up the hill over shorter than this to finish third a way behind one that has won again since. That after the move to Gary Moore’s yard.

So she went back on the to follow and I got the impression she’d do well over further which you might expect from a daughter of Yeats but isn’t particularly borne out by the form book. Point to point form nothing special and pulled up in three of five at the trip tackled here. And yet Gary Moore aims her here based presumably on what he saw at Fontwell over 2m 5f which I have to agree did look like she’d do better over further.

Maybe the shove from Jamie is added to that thinking. It did seem to be making a difference to most recent efforts.

Ground is another concern however. Formbook says needs some cut. Not going to get that.

So you see my reticence? Trouble is I talked myself out of a winner on Tuesday along similar lines (January!!) and I’ll kick myself if I leave Ruby alone and she then trots up. And there is still that run behind Verdana Blue. That’s a champion hurdle candidate now. Nothing in this field can boast that kind of form.

So I give her a go. In LIM format because I do think the fav is there to be shot at and can pay for the bet if something else proves more up to the task than Ruby is. In all truth, I see this not as a bet on Ruby but a pledge of my faith in Jamie and the Moores. They do have something about them as a team, were in good form Tuesday and of course know their way around Plumpton.Being tried with visor on also for first time. Might help her get into the bubble. Wonder if one of them might work for me?

 

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on MAUNA KEA

0.1pt BACK on RUBY YEATS

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 34/41 = 82.92% :   BACKS: 6/25 = 24%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.00 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ascot (Jan 19) & Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC  – Entered for Chepstow (Jan 18)

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for Musselburgh (Jan 18)

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS – Tuesday night at Midnight:

Don’t need to tell you that I was spitting feathers at Cibulkova who spoiled the fourth attempt at the staggered acca (and our best yet) but did I suppose let me hedge out when she fought back to win second set (settled as a losing free bet here though of course). Totally outplayed in the first set and then got bathroom breaked by Zhang as revenge for the fact that Cibulkova used the ploy on her end of first set. I wouldn’t allow it myself but they all do it. Momentum is such a big thing in women’s tennis and Cibulkova had it but the 11 minutes off court by the Chinese girl allowed the situation to cool and she also returned with some of her first set quality which had deserted her second set. Even so, Cibulkova was a weapons grade winner on the form book and the Boz picked seven short priced favs to look at but you’ll have noticed I chose to back only two. And only two won. Bouchard and Wang. Suppose you can call that hitting the crossbar but it at least meant a good night for the lay to back which scored four lay wins from five. Not so good for back to lay trades where only one of the four showed profit.

Hey ho. Continuing with the trading info lists FYI as I promised and do actually quite like both back to lays on day 3 but have decided against betting at this stage. Need my sleep to help me get back in that bubble!

 

Inplay trading info:

Value against the book Back to lays on night three include:

 

Yulia Putintseva (2.3)

Sachia Vickery (3.5)

Short price fav Lay to backs on night three include:

 

Sloane Stephens

Petra Martic

Kiki Bertens

                                     

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 4: (LEG 3)

0.5pt WIN on the following double at Melbourne Park at around (2.75)

Eugenie Bouchard to beat Shuai Peng (1.86)

Dominika Cibulkova to beat Shuai Zhang (1.48) – LOST

 

That’s the feeling the staggered acca can give you! I thought we were well poised for a proper bet on LEG 4 after six consecutive winners got us to the brink. It only takes one to bring you down! My fault. I picked Cibulkova instead of Wang. Must take the consequence of going back to the drawing board! Will shout as soon as I have another one ready to start.

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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