BOZmail – 16th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 16th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

3-55 ASCOT

And so to a Saturday of UK horse racing with more good horses you could back than you’ve had hot dinners. The sort of Saturday over which my Dad the bookie rubbed his hands with glee. With razor sharp odds setting and punters & tipsters all sure different runners in same race would win! A day when in form you can make a mint backing or, if out of form, you can lose your trousers never mind yer shirt. The Boz treats it as just another day at the office (albeit a busier than normal one) and disciplines himself down to just two races so that he’s sure to be wearing trousers come what may!

The Betfair Chase is a classic LIM race with all six runners feasible winners on paper. Just a question of which one to lay! You can’t be surprised to hear that I won’t hear of Waiting Patiently getting beat. Given a trouble free round that is and providing he hasn’t picked up a dose of Murphys Luck on the back of his beloved trainer passing. Never was an unlucky horse but was very much so in the King George. The more I watch that, the more I will him to stay on his feet. Jump racing and why we love it. Never was a more beautiful horse to watch jumping a fence. So very much in love with the game. Here’s hoping that experience didn’t sour him.

On paper, I could find some reasons to make him the lay given his price. He would ideally want softer ground to be a time ratings good thing. It is a very competitive field and Fox Norton could win on old form and Aso could win on his improved form this year. Charbel is capable of a crackerjack now and then and the Nicholls pair are also both top drawer. The thing for me though is that this doesn’t come down to race reading. This is a superstar horse who had the King George field covered the same as he has this field covered. Hadn’t proved he does 3 miles but if he runs in the Gold Cup still having not proved it, he’d carry my money every day of the week. His breeding oozes it as indeed does every race he’s ever run. Travels with class and changes gear when you ask. I’ve not seen a horse in running at the moment I’d back against him.

 

But they still have to get round accident free. Hughes is arguably not a champion class jockey (but that’s being very unfair to him because he rarely gets the chances the Southern jocks get to hone champion race craft) and on paper he needs more rain – which he won’t get – to be bombproof on times.

But he’s still a weapons grade pick for me over a distance he 100% gets and so he’s my long awaited (patiently waited) leg three in the current ongoing staggered acca. See below. I also play the race LIM to keep the Feb repair work going there. With three lays on the bounce since coming back from the break very keen to stay on the winning lay streak again and I do have one in this field I think is take onable compared to the rest. The Novice status of Cyrname makes him least likely winner  for me. Won by a street LTO but against lesser opposition and his class will be seriously tested here and although he is very much a horse for the future, a lay here to small money just to try to keep the lay winning streak ongoing. Politologue would be stable number one in my eyes making Cyrname a tad short priced.

 

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on CYRNAME (around 4.0)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 47/64 = 73.43% :   BACKS: 8/42 = 19.04%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Albert Bartlett (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Market Rasen(Feb 17)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid

Good Man Pat – Entered for the JLT (Mar 14)

All Currencies

Master Dino*

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash

Pistol Whipped – Entered for Lingfield (Feb 18)

 

SATURDAY HORSE TO FOLLOW BET:

5-10 WINCANTON – RUBY YEATS – 0.25pt WIN @ 11/2 or better

Back to the right distance and with the whopping weight claim of good young jockey Niall Houlihan. Competitive Saturday race but one he could definitely win with a good ride round. The Moore stable in excellent form at Sandown on Friday.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 3)

3-55 ASCOT – WAITING PATIENTLY – 0.25pt WIN @ 7/4 or better

Jump to win for me albeit that he becomes a serious good thing only with a drop of rain.

As good a free bet as you’ll ever get however!

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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