BOZmail – 16th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 16th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.1723 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.2041 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Sunday play

3-55 KEMPTON

Well I got the Saturday feature race wrong second week in a row but Nordano more than made up for it! You’ll see why I trade these selections perhaps now although maybe those of you who back level stakes singles on them will disagree if you got the 10/1! I thought that was a big price (there was some 11/1 around briefly) and expected the front run again with plenty of opportunity to trade and remembered that LTO’s run in a better race in this ground meant the win wasn’t out of the question. Then I saw how well Coleman had him going and with Bryony just having won on Sir Psycho, I was suddenly less worried she wasn’t on board. Hedged a quarter of my stake at 8.8 when I had intended to do half in my pre-race plan at that point and then saw the spurt off the final bend and was suddenly counting winnings. Nerve broke a little bit at the second last and I took my total hedge at 1.05 (just in case he fell at the last or Storm Dennis blew him away!!) but rowed in with over £80 profit as compared to the £100 you’ll have creamed from the single and I’m happy with that. Always like my stake back at the very least  and although it’ll take me a race or two to claw that £20 back (was £10-29 up from previous ‘losers’ however so not that long perhaps) in future trades, my stats still show that the trade approach beats the win singles approach in the long term (two and a half full years of stats now dating back to summer 2017). Welsh Saint just won as well though! Now I’ve got two winners to claw back on! Main thing of course is that the To Follow list is a source of good runs as well as winners. Play either way and profit.

Sporting John by the way goes on the list. Got him wrong but will get my money back off him now I know how good he really is! Nordano also stays on. That’s our first win from him (but not our first collect) and his consistency as well as his class remains impressive.He gets his asterix. Not top drawer but at the right level, more to come from him. Likes that ground as well obviously!

Just had the delightful news that my each way acca has come in as well despite Normandy Soldier finishing fifth! Had written that off and forgot Betfair Sportsbook were paying the fifth divi. Shows you what I know about backing each way. Not something I do a lot of!

On so on to Sunday…. Exeter already abandoned and no LIM qualifiers at Market Rasen nor Navan leaving just this 4 runner at Kempton on the all weather. Oh and the small matter of our Grand National hope taking on Tiger Roll in the Boyne hurdle (see below). That’ll be highlight of the day for sure but I’ve worked hard to try and repair the still spluttering LIM by working out which of the front two in the 3.55 to take on. It wasn’t easy again but I’ve got there. Let’s hope it’s a better show than Saturday’s effort!

The key to the Kempton race is probably why does Mark Johnston send multiple winner Kings Advice to take on Rainbow Dreamer when the son of Frankel has no winning form over two miles (few Frankel’s have) and he is also seemingly held by Rainbow Dreamer on a line through Mildenberger who Murphy’s mount beat receiving 8lb over course and distance two runs ago. Mildenberger of course also in Johnston’s care so he ought to have a line which is the worry to my rationale. Truth of the matter however is that this race is part of the all weather championships fast track qualifier and Johnston will definitely have an eye on that for Kings Advice who to my eyes would be more suited to the Lingfield track where he ran behind Mildenberger LTO after a lay off.

So Johnston may know something I don’t and you have to keep an eye on that as the money has started to come for Kings Advice as I write.

That breeding however definitely puts me off and I was already leaning to the King stable charge. I flagged up the stable on Friday as coming to itself this time of year and my weather thwarted nap at Wincanton on Saturday was a King horse and I reckon Oisin Murphy booking is also a big clue as he arrives back in the UK after a spell in Tokyo. The champ will do for me. 

I am also quite interested in the ex Aiden O’Brien horse Cliffs of Dooneen who is lightly raced but has some form at Kempton and a time over the distance that gives him a chance. Quite a good race but on the all weather still and not going daft there yet despite my winner in the week!  

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on KINGS ADVICE (around 2.3 : upper value parameter 2.6)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 6/11 = 54.54%  Backs: 1/5 = 20%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11),  Albert Bart (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Warwick (Feb 21) & the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee

Sporting John

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW on SATURDAY:

3-00 ASCOT – NORDANO @ 9/1 – 1st

(Backed @ 11.0 : Hedged 0.025pt @ 8.8 : 0.075pt @ 1.05) = P/L +0.79275

3-50 HAYDOCK – WELSH SAINT @ 10/3 – 1st

(Backed @ 3.85 : Hedged 0.025pt @ 3.4 : 0.075pt @ 1.14) = P/L +0.2105 

4-10 ASCOT – NORMANDY SOLDIER @ 15/2 – 5th

(Backed @ 13.0 : Hedged 0.1pt @ 9.8 : 0.1pt @ 5.7) = P/L +0.098 

Tremendous day’s trading and although a bit gutted the treble went down, you’ll see I never miss a chance to trade! Normandy Soldier was travelling o.k. and I was already hedged out but I went again putting this single trade into deficit if he won. Why…….?

If you know the answer, then you’ve already made some strides as a trader (and of course I speak to our new converts not those of you even more old & shrewder trading hands than I am!). The treble was taken at just under 300/1 so we had loads to play with on the single to cover for if Normandy did go on to prevail. I didn’t anywhere near maximise, just got him in to being a single ‘winner’ if he didn’t win once the price dipped below 6.0 in running. He was still in third and competitive at the time and I shouted my lungs off for him briefly after – before he hit his class buffer zone. Then stayed on a bit again and 3rd did look a possible so he got some secondary shouting for a while and finished nobly in fifth which you’d say now is about his level in this class. The ground suited again though so we’ll keep him on the list for a bit in case they try him again down in class. His prominent running style suits the trading game so he’s definitely a trader’s friend and those with me from before Xmas will know we already had our big (14/1) pick up off him.

Each Way Acca 0.01pt. Total stake = 0.02pts – WON – P/L = +0.08 points. Betfair Sportsbook paid 5th on the 3-00 and the 4-10 so my each way acca came in somewhat to my surprise!! Hope you had the same outcome! 

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW on SUNDAY:

1-50 NAVAN – MAGIC OF LIGHT @ 7/2 – 0.15pt BACK

I’d say this was short on Magic of Light – both distance and price which is already in from 5/1 as money comes for her. Expect a game race and an ideal trading opportunity as always with her. Take at best price you can and hedge at preferential odds.She gets the mares allowance so will be dangerous and I do fancy her over Tiger Roll on his comeback trail. There are a couple of other dangers as well mind so only each way really for our Grand National hope. Check out how she’s travelling though. I’ll probably save most of my hedging for in play in case she travels like the dream she did LTO.

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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