BOZmail 16th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 16th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 122/173 = 70.52%  Backs : 35/109 = 32.11%

12-50 LUDLOW

Fidelio Vallis’ form behind Mrs Hyde would make him the obvious one in this but deeper study shows Strong Glance to be an equally interesting proposition on its hurdling form. Which one will jump the better on debut? It may in any case be best sticking with those who have chase experience and Annsam did ok LTO after a fall on his debut. Strong chance here with that experience under his belt. My eye is drawn however to Aasleagh Dawn who runs for change of trainer Nikki Evans and has a feasible time figure on old form at Carlisle. And is that very big price again. Will need some improvement which may come from the freshening change of stable and probably needs Fidelio to underperform but he was very disappointing LTO at Cheltenham so that’s not impossible. Race probably needs to run his way but as with Monday’s effort, I don’t totally rule out on paper and the 12lb weight received will certainly help. Can’t pretend to know much about trainer or jockey so I’ll be watching with interest. Not a race to go daft on again. More of a Christmas tickle!

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on FIDELIO VALLIS (around 2.4 but may well start shorter so keep an eye)

0.025pt BACK on AASLEAGH DAWN (around 51.0)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang – Entered for Ascot (Dec 18)

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands – Entered for Ascot (Dec 18)

Dusart – Entered for Ascot (Dec 18)

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow 

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +53.9236points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 33.6754 points (+13.6754 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 50.1987 points (+42.1987 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1985 points (-0.8015 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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