BOZmail – 16th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY AUGUST 16th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

5-00 TRAMORE

Really am going to Ireland on Friday for my fix of jumps racing again! Just finding it tough on the UK flat at the minute. Not missing by much but LIM principles just struggling to get ahead. So back over the jumps where I just go when I need to!

This is the only qualifier but it’s not a bad one with two Gordon Elliot runners in the three that could win. I prefer Westland Row of the two but Jack Kennedy chooses Barra which may be significant. He is a dicey jumper however and both he and Mullins’ Pylonthepressure struggled LTO in the same hot race at Galway Festival.

The latter however has good form before that in his close second behind the classy Peregrine Run and if he reproduces that, could well be good enough. Still in profit protection mode however so simple lay play for me on Friday.

This of course in preparation now for my visit to Ireland end of this month. Might be a few others in the lead up. More news on that week anon. The paddock watching day will now be at Tipperary on August 29th.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on BARRA (around 3.0 : no greater than 3.3)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 146/217 = 67.28% :   BACKS: 43/148 = 29.05%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for York(Aug 21) 

Raise You 

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Hungerford,Newbury (Aug 17) & Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

Piedita

James Watt

Lord of the Lodge – Entered in the Gimcrack at York (Aug 23)

N.b. Sir Dragonet runs in the 6-45 at the Curragh Friday but steaming odds on. Watch only.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.22 points.

Staggered acca number 17: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the final staggered acca first leg emerges. Have an alternative approach use of the bank lined up to start in the Autumn. Never afraid to admit defeat.

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  US OPEN PORTFOLIO:
 

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA at around 6.4 

0.25pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA at 40/1 

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF at 80/1 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN at 66/1 

0.25pt BACK ON DANIELLE COLLINS at 250/1  

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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