BOZmail 16th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY AUGUST 16th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.1922 points (+2.1922 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.5927 points (+6.5927 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.705 points (-0.295 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +7.4909 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +11.7785 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 41/52 = 78.84%  Backs : 7/24 = 29.16%

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LESS IS MORE:

12-00 MARKET RASEN

Disappointing upshot of the four days without UK NH racing is that we get large fields again at Uttoxeter on Monday and a chance of no qualifying LIM race and so I am improvising to go with the flow of the times again and putting up two plays at Market Rasen on Sunday given that I was struggling to discriminate between them anyways.

Both have strong lay choice in the race read whilst neither is an easy back read and so simply two lays on the day is the way I play with a trade on a to follow horse also and a tiny acca play(see below).

This Novice hurdle at 12-00 is my preferred LIM on price as Rhosneigr looks one to take on with the head to head alongside Balagan going to Bryony’s horse in my book despite the five pound wrong in the weights you could argue for Neil King’s horse. Times favour him and he has another positive in going right handed this time which should eradicate the jump bias that cost him the win over further LTO. Rhosneigr has a further negative in looking to need juice in the ground and whilst the weather forecast suggests that may be accommodated, I still feel Balagan holds sway on recent performances and there are also too dark horse flat debutantes in the field neither of whom can be discounted and is the reason I am not overly keen to take a short back price on to follow horse Balagan. Lay Rhosneigr but keep an eye on the weather and perhaps moderate stake if the morning rain proves heavy.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on RHOSNEIGR (around 2.4 and a little higher if necessary but lower if you get offered it. Get the best price you can)

3-25 MARKET RASEN

Little Stevie is the lay in the Handicap Chase with his 5lb penalty to shoulder for winning LTO – a race for which time and form hasn’t come up overly well. Three in with a strong chance of beating him between which it is quite difficult to choose. Tricky Customer has better times and although also carrying penalty for winning LTO, is second time after a wind op so gets the nod between the front two but I actually think the winner might come from the other two – Honourable Gent and Lucky Robin – who are very close on LTO form but the former just marginally gets my vote to go in the acca on the basis of stable form and scope for improvement after that FTO since lockdown run. Main LIM play however is the simple lay on Little Stevie.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on LITTLE STEVIE (around 3.8)     

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar 

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Sangha River – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi – Entered for Fontwell (Aug 18)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Fontwell (18) & Stratford (19)&Newton Abb(21)

El Presente 

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Samsons Reach

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE HORSE ON SUNDAY:

2-15 MARKET RASEN – EL PRESENTE @ 2/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are offered.

Mighty impressive on FTO for which he is up 9lbs but on a second time after wind op so the 17 length victory could easily mean something in hand here. This is a competitive opposition however and several could challenge so a recommended trade rather than a straight back. That is reserved for the day’s acca.

OCCASIONAL ACCA ON Sunday all at Market Rasen:

12-00 Balagan @ 6/4

2-15 El Presente @ 2/1

3-25 Honourable Gent @ 7/2

1 x 0.05pt WIN TREBLE.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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