BOZmail – 16th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY APRIL 16th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

5-20 NEWMARKET

Tynecastle Park ran a much better race than expected on Tuesday and went past the Galileo stamina-drain to chase home the winner. It was one I got right though and boy didn’t the market agree!

There is a truism I was instructed to abide by when working for the bookmakers which is always shorten the prices of a decent tipster when he is coming back into form after a lean spell. Looks like I might be classed a decent tipster now then! (Racing Post Diomed also agreed with me however and more likely that the market just realised they had things wrong on tissue when he posted up – about an hour after I did. All of which is reminder again though to get your prices early – especially when the Boz is back in form!). You might like to note also that Betting School’s Nick Hardman came back to form on Saturday bagging the long priced winner of the Scottish National. If you follow him you need to start posting early also.

And I think I’ve found another market askew for Tuesday in this contest at HQ. Marhaban must have been burning up the gallops if he’s allowed to go off at 5/4. Keep a close eye on the early activity and any sign of a drift, get your money down because it looks to me like he is iminently beatable here unless he has come on a serious bundle since LTO. That’s a possibility of course given connections and stable. Appleby running to form figure only 40% mind so others in the field doing better in that table. The big unknown is whether Marhaban improves for the switch to turf but that applies to War Tiger too. And it is War Tiger top of my shortlist simply because he holds Marhaban on collateral form through Gantier. And yet is 11/2!! Like I say, time to get in early again! Fahey yard also at 60% on current running to form table so advantage there. And on times too. Marhaban has to seriously have been showing something at home to justify 5/4!

The other three in the field all can have cases made too with their ability to perform on turf already assured.Never do Nothing has similar credentials to Marhaban if he handles the step up in trip. Solid Stone obviously from connections of equal calibre to Marhaban with an equal unknown about his ability at the trip. As a Camelot, Mordred would be the most likely to do the trip on breeding as he steps up and has already decent form on turf. At 12/1 he would be race value but the Hannon yard down in the 40% running to form bracket alongside the Appleby yard and so my back stays as a simple single on War Tiger. That form giving weight to Gantier sways me. Then there is also the fact he has tiger in his name!! Tigers cannot stop hurting the bookies at the moment and if we get 11/2, this may well be another!!

It is an early season affair with all the runners coming back after breaks or else I’d be diving in hefty here. I do strongly recommend taking early prices on my two plays. But have a good look at the race aswell and form your own sense of confidence about the race read. I shall be looking at it again between now and off time and may well be increasing my stakes if I see more pointers to the way it looks likely to me to go. The market watch will be a key one on this play.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on MARHABAN (around 2.25 : no greater than 2.9)

0.15pt BACK on WAR TIGER

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 84/120 = 70% : BACKS: 19/78 = 24.35%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.15 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 2)

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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