BOZmail – 15th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 15th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.3567 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +56.5195 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-20 BATH

You had to move quick to make the lay price on Saturday (I had to take a sliver over at 4.0) and same might be true on Sunday. Princess Way looks a clear lay again penalised for win LTO, not guaranteed to like this firmer ground (as indeed Tell William didn’t – good to firm form here doesn’t often translate to firm) and held on times by Albanita and particularly Orange Suit with Tregonning’s Miss Blondell far from out of it and sure to bolt in now I don’t tip the yard in form who also have a good record at Bath! Truth being I couldn’t pick between those three and half an eye on bank management and saving pennies for the jumps where I am definitely doing better at the moment. Keep hitting the flat racing crossbar! September still saveable if we keep it tight.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on PRINCESS WAY (around 3.3 : no greater than 3.7)

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 157/240 = 65.41% :   BACKS: 45/163 = 27.60%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

Will shout when the new staggered acca first leg emerges. Probably be over jumps where I scored 4/4 in trial week whereas all my flat pix managed to hit the crossbar!

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 14/9/19 at Bath:

2-00 Wild Dancer (2nd) – Wiff Waff (U) – Jaganory (U)

2-35 Mac McCarthy (U) – Top Buck (1st)

3-10* Overpriced Mixer (NR) – Space Ace (3rd)

3-45 Walk on Walter (1st) -Oeil de Tigre (U) – Mountain Peak (2nd)

4-20 Sash (1st) – Tell William (2nd) – Strict Tempo (U) – Elamirr (U) – Hold Still(U)

4-55* Mojave (1st)

5-30 Pink Flamingo (2nd) – Glamorous Rocket(U) – Good Luck Fox(U)-Secret Fact (1st)

2019 BOZMAIL SHORTLIST SYSTEM PERMED ACCA SEVEN DAY TRIAL – 8th – 14th SEPTEMBER – STATS

                    Winners               ISP No.of Selections   –  Days 1pt Level 

                                                                                                               Stake Singles P/L      

DAY ONE      – Archimento     7/4       11 +2.85

FONTWELL  – Downloadtheapp 11/10

                    Shantou Sunset  8/1

DAY TWO      – Jacamar       11/2     14 +4.375

NEWT ABB   – Capitoul         15/8

                 Game Line       5/2

                 Sizing Tara       9/2

DAY THREE   – New Millenium 6/1                   15 -0.90

WORCESTER- Sunset Showdown 4/1

                                  Queens Magic 11/10

DAY FOUR     – Champagne Mist 2/1               14 +6.0

UTTOXETER – Tingo in the Tail 16/1

DAY FIVE        – Last Surprise 7/4                     14 +4.5

CHELMSFORD   – Across The Sea   9/4

                                  Royal Birth      8/1

                           Conkering Hero    5/2

DAY SIX          – Breathalyze   7/4     17 0

CHESTER      – Powertrain        5/4

                      Noble Prospector  2/1

                      Sir Maximilian   8/1

DAY SEVEN  – Top Buck          13/8   19 -2.25                                        

BATH             – Walk on Walter   7/2

                  Sash                    7/2 

                            Mojave                1/3

                            Secretfact           11/4

TOTALS:                                           25 104 +14.575

Winning Strike Rate: 25/104 = 24.03%

Level Stakes win ROI: = 14.01%

Stats compiled to ISP and not including number of forecasts landed (which were considerable) and system was often used for that purpose rather than level stakes singles betting. Obviously also better returns to BSP. I’ll let you compile those and let me know if you want to keep receiving the system from next week onwards.                   

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for  Newbury (Sep 21)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

4-15 LEOPARDSTOWN – DEIRDRE @ 12/1 – 1pt BACK (Backed 1pt @ 18.0 : laid back 1.5pt @6.0)

Keep Deirdre in mind for the Arc. Is a horse who needs a run from the rear and didn’t get it here but still came with a terrific late rattle and my 1.5pt @ 6.0 got laid for a successful, if slightly squeaky bum, trade! Sure to be another big price if going to the Arc.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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