BOZmail 15th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 15th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +15.2336 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.5328 points (+4.5328 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.6863 points (+11.6863 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 76/108 = 70.37%  Backs : 19/63 = 30.15%

5-15 HEXHAM

Don’t like this race as much as I was expecting and two of the three entries for Kelso on Wednesday are scratched so the bitty,rhythmless feel to horses in September (and through lockdown of course) goes on for me. No actual LIM qualifiers either at Hexham or Kelso so quite what the future holds looks continually ominous. Be glad to get back to the tennis at the weekend!

Been plotting this Novice Chase for a few days however with Return Ticket very much a horse I know a bit about and was intending a simple win at last on him. But not at odds on! Even money at best. Having given it the race read, found two negatives for him too. The obvious one of his tendency to peck at a final fence still once the chips are down is off putting. One of these days he’ll get past that but do I want to be backing him at even money at best to finally get his chasing head in front?

Not really. And the form profile has thrown up the hurdle fact that he did best at the flat tracks so with the got to race where you can at the moment still very prevalent, he’s tried at Hexham which would hardly seem ideal. Even less of an even money shot. That strikes me actually as a bad value bet so I switch from back to lay. That invites in Murphys Law of course with it being September and all. I won’t blame you if you stay out. More important than Murphys Law however for long term gambling profit is value for your bet and the value in this lies with Richard Johnson’s mount Leapaway who is 3/1 with Bet 365 as I write. That looks worth taking. Been sent a long way for the race and was fancied by me you may remember LTO against Longhouse Sale when his tack broke and he never got further than the first fence. Before that was fourth in the Beat The Judge race at Newton Abbot that I assessed wrongly at Fontwell on Saturday. Both of those races are now form boosted races. Leapaway looks a good shout in the value stakes if Murphys Law doesn’t do its worst and finally let Return Ticket win the time I decide to back against!

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on RETURN TICKET (around 2.0 or shorter if you can get it)

0.1pt BACK on LEAPAWAY (3/1 with BET 365. Get the best price you can. May get backed)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1       (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Sep26) & (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered @ Kelso (Sep 16)

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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