BOZmail 15th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

THURSDAY OCTOBER 15th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +31.7452 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.8739 points (+5.8739 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 35.0568 points (+27.0568 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 88/124 = 70.96%  Backs : 24/77 = 31.16%

3-20 WINCANTON

Encouraging result on the flat again on Wednesday and if I’d suspected the Crowley ride would go off at 11/4, I’d have put that in as a back! I expected even money! Just goes to show. We didn’t influence the market on Wednesday and scored one against the book. Long may that continue. About time I put a winning LIM run together!

Tempting as it is to stay with the flat now it is behaving, NH provides an opportunity for the next few days so we scoot back across the codes and take on this novice hurdle at Wincanton.

I think the one that nabbed Celestial Force at Hereford on Tuesday might be a good one and he’ll make to follow if Celestial Force turns out again here (and wins) which some seem to think he won’t. I shan’t be surprised to see Nicholls trying again with this one at his favourite track and think he has Moon of Baroda covered even giving the weight. The Hughie Morrison charge looks over rated to me on his Newton Abbot form albeit behind a good one. But  a long way behind. Has to improve a bit to beat Dave and Bernie never mind Celestial Force so at a short price I take Moon of Baroda on. If tissue market is inaccurate and Moon of Baroda drifts, I wouldn’t be wanting to be going beyond 3.0 for my lay and obviously less than that if Celestial Force does prove to be a non runner.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on MOON OF BARODA (around 2.3 but take the lowest price you can get) 

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Oct 24)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Fakenham (Oct 16)

Young Wolf – Entered @ Fakenham (Oct 16)

Sirobbie      – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Oct 16)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose – Entered @ Fakenham (Oct 16)

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE horse on Thursday at Carlisle:

1-52 SHE’S A ROCCA @ 16/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate or when preferential odds offered.

Conditions not ideal for this as a back only as the Richards horse is still learning the jumping game and strong suggestion on form that heavy ground is the ideal and some juice at the very least required. Distance may also be shorter than optimum on breeding. This might all happen a bit quick again. I would still expect a pre race trading opp though and get the biggest price you can and hedge back to a green position before the off. If there has been distinct improvement in this mare since we last saw her on the racecourse, you can expect stable money to appear on the market and may then act accordingly (i.e. save some for in race trading). And don’t forget the 1.01 in play if she is running a big race!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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