BOZmail 15th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 15th  2020

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 108/148 = 72.97%  Backs : 29/93 = 31.18%

3-35 CHELTENHAM

Those who remember For Pleasure’s LTO will understand why I’ve come for this race as Sunday’s LIM from a lot to choose from. We have two To Follows in the field and Alex Hales’ charge is the value now going left handed again and gets a chance to show if he is as good as he looked the times before. Fidelio Vallis also franked from that race won by Mrs Hyde who has beaten Verdana Blue since. Slight question mark about the ground for For Pleasure and jockey/stable are the low key in the context of the race but we get out value therefrom.

We pay for the bets with a lay on the underpriced Skelton horse again. You can never write them off as Protektorat proved but big step up in class for this one Third Time Lucki who also looks held on times in my figures with Coutandbould an additional LIM cover in the race – second behind McFabulous LTO and sure to like the ground.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on THIRD TIME LUCKI (around 2.3)

0.1pt BACK on FOR PLEASURE (around 10.0)

0.05pt BACK on FIDELIO VALLIS (around 5.5)

0.01pt REVERSED FORECAST on FOR PLEASURE & FIDELIO VALLIS 

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Fontwell (Nov 15)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

1-40 CHELTENHAM – ELDORADO ALLEN @ 4/1 – 0.15pt BACK -1st

Backed @ 6.0 & 8.2 : Hedged @ 5.0 & 0.05pt @3.95: P/L = +1.0608points

That worked out well and was a serious case of oh me of little faith in what I wrote last night! My initial trade backed at 6.0 and hedged back at 5.0 left me with a little bit to play with in running but when I saw the crash in on Fusil Raffles (madness in such a potentially hot race) and the drift on Eldorado I decided to back him again to play in running. My faith in what I saw LTO returning to me gradually. That horlicks of the last he made at Newton Abbot was of concern but Tizzard’s horses are coming back to themselves now and when I saw in running the way he was jumping and Fusil wasn’t, I started getting gung ho! I took 0.05pt back at 3.95 as they approached the second last with only two in contention and Eldorado still lobbing with the idea of then playing my 1.1 and 1.01 cards after the last. Gumball’s fall of course changed my need for that and I was left sitting pretty wondering whether Eldorado would have won anyway. I think he might have although of course we’ll never know. It was a hot race on paper and he cruised it ultimately. He stays on the list for that!

2-15 CHELTENHAM – AL DANCER @ 9/1 – 0.25pt BACK -3rd

Backed @ 12.0 : hedged 0.3pt @ 7.0 & 0.5pt @1.6 : P/L = +0.5489points

I thought he was going to win after the third last and make for an exciting acca and so did the market which offered 1.4 and lower at that point. I took my cover 1.6 with it still being a way from home with the hill to climb yet and the boy did then hit a flat spot up to the last but did rally up the hill alright to snaffle 3rd. Decent effort and exciting race to watch. FYI, the shortlist system managed the forecast in the race and with BOZmail help also scored the tricast. Turning into a cracking Saturday!

2-42 UTTOXETER – CARROLS MILAN @ 5/2 – 0.15pt BACK -1st

Backed @ 3.2 : hedged 0.17pt @ 2.72 : P/L = +0.0196points

That’s the one that got away! Decided I chosen the right LIM race and decided not to oppose what I’d perceived as the fav under Bryony Frost having got my profit. So no play in running. Carrols Milan traded at 40.0 and more but if you saw that double fall of the leaders coming, you did better than me! I also scrub Carrolls from the list from that. Was going to do anyway for coming third but now she carries a penalty NTO for a race she most certainly didn’t deserve to win! I would have been praising the gods if my acca had still been going on!

3-55 CHELTENHAM – UCANAVER @ 7/2 – 0.15pt BACK – Unplaced

Backed @ 4.4 : hedged 0.25pt @ 2.6 : P/L + 0.098pts

Saved the disappointing one til last! Smashed up in the market so an easy trade but off the list for that. Blew up. Good job the acca wasn’t depending on it!

0.01pt ACCA – LOST

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

1-15 CHELTENHAM – SOLDIER OF LOVE @ 10/3 – 0.1pt BACK

                                       THE BUTCHER SAID @ 13/2 – 0.1pt BACK

3-00 CHELTENHAM – PISGAH PIKE @ 33/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best prices that you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are offered.

Very much all trades again with the first two taking on a potential superstar in The Big Breakaway. But he has to prove he jumps whilst our two are solid and proven which is no bad thing round Cheltenham. Usual practice of get best prices you can, green out before the off leaving yourself a little for in play should it prove appropriate.

Pisgah Pike same thing. Mega competitive race but great price so plenty of leeway if he travels round Cheltenham like he has in his last two races. Very exciting prospect who owes me nowt and has no weight to carry here.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +46.5995 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 29.3629 points (+9.3629 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 46.9971 points (+38.9971 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3885 points (-0.6115 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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