BOZmail – 15th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY MARCH 15th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.2776 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.2401 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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LESS IS MORE: Sunday play

2-00 CARLISLE

Well, I had a go at the Cheltenham week blind and they certainly bet him (or was it us?) and he went off like a scalded cat and I thought for a moment it was handicap blip time. Sadly my race read was right and we needed that 4lb riders weight allowance to just see our LIM cover Duhallow home ahead of a strongly backed fav who doesn’t jump great and has a touch of the slows but ultimately does have the stamp of class (which Nikap lacked) and will win one sometime if he keeps staying on like that. Further needed I would have thought where Misty Whisky is concerned.

Job done for us though to steady ship again and remind me that Cheltenham is now over and time for strong focus on LIM and its continued steady but not progressive cashbuilder performance so far in 2020. Back ratio remains healthy at 32% and is what is keeping us ahead but the traditionally strong area of lays is lagging behind and needs a consistent win run week just to push things on a bit and give some more fodder for speculative backs near the end of the month. Misty Whisky was the first concerted attempt to put the focus back on strong daily lays for a while and expect a week of that now to try and push the plus score on.

Starting on Sunday at Carlisle. This maiden hurdle looks quite tight betting wise but Ulverston is a horse with the slows – especially in this ground – and although La Chanteuse is not a fav to back because his jumping hasn’t yet come together, he is the class and the speed in the race and gets Brian on board to try and engineer his first win. The Ferry Master is the danger  and may well win on jumping from a stable in fine form. So simple play the lay on Ulverston. Take the early price below 4.0 because I can see him drifting against the pressure for the other two.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on ULVERSTON (around 4.0 and a little higher if needs be)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 20/33 = 60.60%  Backs: 8/25 = 32%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

8th:     +0.22 (+0.529) Lay not matched : Back @ 3.2

9th:     -0.208 (+0.321) Lay @ 1.79 : Back @ 4.1

10th:   -0.1 (+0.221) Back @ 12.0

11th:   +0.735 (+0.956) Lay @ 1.28 : Backs @ 10.0 & 13.0

12th:    RACING ABANDONED

13th:   -0.175 (+0.781) Lay @ 1.7

14th:   +0.147 (+0.928) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 12.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op 

Verdana Blue 

Maire Banrigh*  

Thyme Hill* 

Nordano* 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Lostintranslation* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Magic of Light* – Entered for Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill – Entered for Taunton (Mar 17)

Quick Wave 

It’safreebee 

Captain Zebo

Ellens Way

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NH TO FOLLOWS/TRADE for Saturday:

3-00 UTTOXETER – NORDANO @ 8/1 – 0.1pt BACK (NR)

NH TO FOLLOWS/TRADE for Sunday:

3-25 MARKET RASEN – ITS’AFREEBEE – 0.1pt BACK @ 8/1

Usual advice. Take the best price you can get and hedge either before the off or in running when offered preferential odds.

Hard to know how strong this one’s run was LTO and whether getting back to old form is realistic or not but I stick with him for another go here. He may well front run again so an in running play is a possibility. He does however represent just an impression that his staying on finish might have been indication of a possible coming back to his old self gradually so I give him just this one chance to prove the impression correct. He goes off if he disappoints along with others I have weeded out as is my wont after Cheltenham. Ostensibly a trade rather than a back so stick to the rule is the advice and create a free bet before the off if you can is the safe way to play. Obviously depends on the odds you get offered but that is my main plan for play on Sunday. 

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 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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