BOZmail – 15th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY JUNE 15th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

4-25 SANDOWN

Not sure I can blame the weather for Friday. Just my poor lay form continuing and the market knowing more than me. Money for Happy Power obviously significant and my average lay price meant not much damage done. I retain the low key lay and high key back strategy for Saturday’s LIM.

My new found Raise You form tested here and I have been back to watch that race at Newbury where the first four pulled away from the 5th and 6th who have both gone on to win since so it really is good form on the rain softened ground. Pour Me a Drink was a good fourth and has won since beating Ouzo and Cardano in the soft at Haydock with both of those going on to win twice since carrying their penalty in the second. You know that I like horses that successfully carry their penalty and Ouzo did so at Nottingham on Friday. So the form is very current. Pour me a drink has a handicap debut in this grade to be excused but that was on firm ground so although that didn’t work for Raakib on Friday, I’m in horse to follow mode this time and I’ll expect better from the Rooney horse who gets Tom Marquand up which also helps.

Worked hard to win at Haydock and up a couple of grades here but he beat winners and the ground does look a big issue for him.

It is an open race again other than that so good for LIM purposes. My race read throws up Absolutio as on a par with favourite Mubariz who was impressive in his October win at Haydock but although the second has won since, no strength in depth to that race and Mubariz was entitled to win pulling up as he did on good to firm. Looked to me like he might be ok on the soft from his upright action with fairly high knee. I’d be more concerned by the long lay off and coming back from that. Stable not at the top of the form in running chart and had a similar sort backed off the boards Friday (Herculean) who trailed in 5th. So no 2/1 for me as a back and a small lay given my poor lay form of late. In fact, I’m going double lay with Cristal Breeze also taken on on handicap debut. Times and step up in class look sure to test him for his three timer in such a competitive heat. Ground also not sure to suit him.

Jason Watson the stable jock for Charlton now but Tom Marquand rode Mubariz to his LTO win. Dunno how significant that might be but like to think Marquand made himself unavailable here in view of being on Pour me a Drink!

Outsiders to concentrate on for me in this. Not going as big a bet on Pour Me A Drink as I might have done had Raakib won so all things considered a conservative stake still bowing to the volatility the weather is bringing. I do like that Raise You formline though. Get on early!

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on MUBARIZ (around 3.0 ; no greater than 3.8)

0.15pt LAY on CRISTAL BREEZE (around 4.0 : no greater than 4.4)

0.25pt BACK on POUR ME A DRINK (6.5 or better)

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 109/163 = 66.87% :   BACKS: 29/106 = 27.35%

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Using the 2.74 profit I posted on the French Open Portfolio (without picking the winner until final stage!) as a pot to play in the Wimbledon warm up events – Nottingham,Edgbaston and Eastbourne. Will be attending for a day at each. Usual portfolio approach on a smaller scale. Outrights only.

NOTTINGHAM 2019 OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO:

0.25point BACK on DONNA VEKIC @ 7.6 on Betfair exchange

Vekic taken back and hedged at 4.6 for same money as first set v Mladenovic was  interrupted by rain at 5-5 in the first set. So free bet for me now for 0.75point profit should she go on to take the crown. That’ll do for what has been a very messy tournament. Off to Edgbaston Monday with better weather forecast there.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the Queens Vase at Ascot (June 19)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

Ocean Paradise

Maydanny

Roseman

Pour Me A Drink – Entered for Sandown (June 15)

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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