BOZmail – 16th JUNE

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Royal Ascot: Day One

TUESDAY JUNE 16th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 18.7525 points (-1.2475 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL BANK = 5 points

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = +0.085 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = -1.1625 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 3/8 = 37.5%  Backs : 0/5 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

NO BET ON DAY ONE OF ROYAL ASCOT

Seemed wisest. Couldn’t find a Rule One qualifying race at the support meetings and although there is a qualifying race at Ascot itself, I have had no joy getting Mogul beaten on paper. You could oppose him at price given the lockdown factor and the shortlist system does give outsider Pyledriver a chance against him. The Boz however says Pyledriver needs give in the ground to show best and has thus ruled it a no play on LIM criteria. I have been known to be wrong though as well you know!

After a long think about the BOZmail 2020 so far and what it has done in the past at moments of strife, I have decided to play Royal Ascot as a Festival event in much the same way as I do normally with the Grand National meeting and the French Open Tennis and Wimbledon. The three big festivals planned for this service that have been cancelled so far. I don’t usually include Royal Ascot in that because of the difficulty factor and my deep seated prejudice against betting in mega competitive flat races. NH yes. Flat racing never.

Until now! I have the revamped Shortlist to help me and let’s face it, this is an extraordinary year and demands of us to try something new and think outside the box.

And so I have gone back to old BOZmail principles of diversification so that when something isn’t functioning (as LIM is not at the moment), something else of equal quality is used to substitute and keep the sheet ticking over. 2020 was not supposed to be that kind of year as you know. But it is now! At least for the rest of June until we get National Hunt racing back and I can confidently work at steadying the LIM ship.

And so I attack Royal Ascot. Put myself a 5 point bank together to equate with the five days and lets see how I get on. The day one card the Shortlist has assembled does give me optimism and hope. In general I plan a nap bet each day and a lay bet when there is one I can confidently call (actually not one on day one) plus a super small stakes value accumulator dipping into that which betting at Royal Ascot demands i.e.taking advantage of the extraordinary value on offer where there is an outsider that you can fancy. I have three for day one and it’ll only need one to land to have us hollering! 

There will also be the daily trades from the to follow list which starts back up again today. One entry for that which you’ll see in the section below.

THEBOZmail at Royal Ascot (5 point bank): Day one

The Nap: 4-40 VERDANA BLUE – 0.15pt WIN @ 4/1 or better

You won’t be surprised to see that I fancy my great white champion hurdle hope to win this especially laid out for the race by the maestro that is Nicky Henderson with Ryan Moore booked to ride. Got to carry weight but she’s run well at Group 3 standard on the flat and of course beat Beveur D’Air for us in the 2018 Xmas hurdle Group 1 race on Boxing Day. So is the class act in this race. One of my top five horses to follow at the present time and still a possible for next year’s Champion Hurdle if the ground comes up right. She needs fast ground which she’ll get here and I have heard it said that if Henderson didn’t rate her Champion Hurdle class, she would run regularly over two mile plus. Has won over this distance before so no staying worries and Henderson has also farmed this race before which bodes well. Often won by a NH horse.

I haven’t swept the opposition for dangers. Shortlist agrees that she’s the best horse in the race. That’ll do for me. Fingers crossed we get a good sail round. 

The Lay of the Day: NO BET

The Value outsiders Acca: 1-15 FIRST CONTACT @ 20/1

                                                  Some issues of fitness here but that applies to 50% of all runners at RA this year. Has to be seen as a possible plus this year. Runs fresh! Is reflected in price anyway for what is ostensibly the class horse in the race.

                                                  1-50 MUTASHRY @ 16/1

                                                   Has a 7th at RA last year as a blot on its copybook but was hampered in running and was staying on only 3 lengths off winner at the end. Can be forgiven that run and is a standout other than that. Shortlist single selection and a rocket fuel price. Get on at best you can and pray he gets a clear run this year!

                                                  2-25 WEST END GIRL @20/1

                                                   This race might be a Gosden carve up and we will be trading on Frankie and the fav but Oisin’s mount has a strong each chance as identified by the shortlist and I agree. Very much value and we all know it’s an anything can happen year.

A 0.01pt Each Way Patent is the recommended bet. Total bet stake of 0.14points

LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3835) Lay @ 1.66

13th: -0.24     (-0.6235) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8395) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2475) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Ribblesdale (June 16) & The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered in the Windsor Castle (June 17) & for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for Redcar (June 18), York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Martineo – Entered for Chelmsford (June 17)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Run Wild – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Virgin Snow

TRADE PLAY OF THE DAY FOR TUESDAY:

2-25 ASCOT – Frankly Darling @ 6/4 – 0.5pt BACK

Usual proviso of back at the best price you can get and hedge back when preferential odds are offered or at your discretion if leaving to hedging in running.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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