BOZmail 15th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


WEDNESDAY JULY 15th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.5667 points (+0.5667 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.0733 points (+6.0733 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.485 points (-0.515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.656 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.9436 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 21/28 = 75%  Backs : 2/11 = 18.18%

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LESS IS MORE: 

NO PLAY DAY

Hands up those who traded in running Tuesday’s LIM play? You’re getting the idea if you did. Perfect trade opportunity. New Quay was an easy hedge pre race with 3.6 laid early and he then drifted outside of 5 meaning he was greened and could be ignored. Then a case of getting the great price on Mr Mafia who I fancied more and more as I looked and with Keighley winning the opener and late market support, I was very confident as the race started. Traded at 1.4 after the last. Perfect trade race.

Only trouble was I put it up as a traditional and have honourably settled at that. To be fair, it was only bad luck saw that approach score so much lower. Dicky did look like he might steal it although Jonjo’s was always going to be a threat if he found after the last. Classier speed horse flagged up with a chance but unknown whether he would be fit.

The race read was encouraging again. New Quay didn’t stay. So increasingly debatable now whether I put up all LIMs as trades and certainly whether I settle them as I play them myself or as I tip them? I’ll wait to hear from you. I know many want to stay away from trading so I can just carry on posting and settling as I always have. 

My own plays are my own plays after all.

It does occur that now that you all now know what is going on, I can simply post my race read. No desperate need to specify a recommended back approach. Each to their own? What say you all to that? Bank management is involved in it of course so if you’d rather I stayed on that, I will simply carry on as per.

Bottom line is that the hiatus that was caused by the coronavirus lockdown is assuaged when it comes to jump racing. Flat racing I still treat with caution but LIM is back where the jumps are concerned. Pretty sure of that now.

Trouble being there is not an NH meet every day for a while yet! So those days we stay out of unless a flat trade opportunity appears. And I can’t find one for Wednesday. High runner incidence once more. We’ll stay out of that. Back Thursday with a couple of to follow trades on the cards too.

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Sandown(July 16) & Newbury(July 19)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh(Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric

Check My Pulse

Ginstrelli 

Balagan – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 16)

Perle Rose

Ashutor

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 16)

Beholden

Lord Condi

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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