BOZmail – 15th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

TUESDAY JANUARY 15th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

1-50 NEWCASTLE

Back in the bubble alright for Monday and having the tennis to focus on aswell now does help. I’ve looked hard at the three UK qualifying LIM races for Tuesday and think the favourites could win all three but this Novice Chase is the most appealing with the second fav Debece also very short and thus layable.

In some ways a hard race because although there are three rags to provide cover of which Iwasthefutureonce is an interesting point recruit from a stable very much in form,this is ostensibly a two horse race with Debece having the better hurdle form and having acquitted himself pretty well on Chase debut behind Drinks Interval. Jammin Masters is the one for me though with that form behind Valtor and in front of Benatar swaying me completely. Time and ratings agree and he didn’t actually jump all that well that day. When asked however quickened nicely against a Henderson horse who was a blot on the handicap and looks a serious chasing prospect.

Champion jockey down to ride but keep an eye on that as he took a nasty fall at Fontwell Monday (and missed a winner straight after) and I might cool a bit if Sheehan comes in to ride.

Jammin Masters could actually want softer ground too but I do think he is the chasing class in the race with the riding second to none class on board and if that is how it lines up, I’ll be laying Debece.

 

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on DEBECE

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 34/40 = 85% : BACKS: 6/25 = 24%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.00 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ascot (Jan 19) & Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC  – Entered for Chepstow (Jan 18)

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Plumpton (Jan 16)

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for Musselburgh (Jan 18)

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS – Monday night at Midnight:

Three of the five back to lays on Sunday proved profitable trades and one of the three lay to backs which is not enough to get the Boz changing his sleep patterns at this time of his life! Managed to get to see the late night in Oz match between Kvitova and Rybarikova which brought the staggered acca bet home and that will be my strategy for now I think with another strong banker double for Monday night to hopefully keep the staggered acca going. I know some of you like to trade the ladies in play however and I shall continue making my daily lists FYI.

 

Inplay trading info:

Value against the book Back to lays on night two include:

 

Kaia Kanepi (3.3)

Dalila Jakupovic (5.3)

Magda Linette (4.8)

Stefanie Voegele (3.6)

Short price fav Lay to backs on night two include:

 

Qiang Wang

Zarina Diyas

Ana Blinkova

Daria Kasatkina

Misaki Doi

                                     

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 4: (LEG 3)

0.5pt WIN on the following double at Melbourne Park at around (2.75)

Eugenie Bouchard to beat Shuai Peng (1.86)

Dominika Cibulkova to beat Shuai Zhang (1.48)

 

My second night bankers in the tennis. Both will need to win but both look strong on current form and head to heads which stand at 2-0 and 5-0 respectively. Bouchard has struggled since making her breakthrough at Wimbledon as a kid but is gradually clawing back and getting mentally stronger and has a good plus score in this slam and specialises as a hard hitter on the surface. Likewise Cibulkova who is getting older now but has made final here before. I expect the hard hitters on the surface to prevail as both also possess the inherent class although those who like to trade might do that on these as singles to cover the bet. Both opponents – whilst not in obvious good current form – can be awkward on their day.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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