BOZmail 15th JANUARY

JANUARY 2021 – 31 day extension to

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

FRIDAY JANUARY 15th  2021

EXTENSION DAY 15:

7-30 SOUTHWELL

And the thing that happens every year in the second half of January is that the favs start winning. Don’t ask me why. Not much rhyme nor reason. Just happens. Might be more NH than all weather so I head back to the flat for a day (not that I had much choice. Pretty heavy snow in Cartmel today) to see if it changes things. If not, I might be tempted to call a halt for a few days if not for rest of the month. I have long stats that tell me to take a month off in January hence why we started when we did and you know why we are still going at the moment. But we’ve banked 0.8446 points. Maybe that’s it. Might be  a case of shutting the satchel and being content with what we’ve got.

As I say, one more go back on the all weather and then a rethink. The original plan was to switch to tennis but that doesn’t seem wise now with the grand slam delayed to Feb 8th and my tests in the tour matches not proving any good. Case of watching that I think until the Grand Slam starts.

So this might be my last bet for a fortnight. We’ll see. Never a bad thing to take a break every now and then. This does feel that time.

So stakes on this are minimal. It’s just a go at breaking a three day losing streak and maybe by passing the lay on the fav.

I do think the fav looks the race read likely winner again but there is a negative for him which is the drop back in trip at which he’s never won. What to beat him?  A case can be made for each of the outsiders. Not so much Mr Carbonator who steps up in trip and so I’m also going double lay although to minimal stakes. Taima has the trainer and jockey to recommend and Be My Sea has jump form that would win this were hurdles on the agenda. I actually pick the back on The Resdev Way who is the value and a horse I like and who hasn’t won for ages despite being out nearly every other day!

Definitely on his mark (and some) and ran over course and distance three goes ago in a time that could win this and better weighted again now. Does have a bad one since however and that’s just how it is with him now. Hasn’t won since 2018 and jockey Paula Muir likewise although she has won on his back before. Just one of those suck it and see days. Work hard to get the best prices you can. If we show a profit, however miniscule, we persevere. Another loss however and we take a break.

Recommendation:

0.075pt LAY on ARTISTIC STREAK (around 2.0)

0.025pt LAY on MR CARBONATOR (around 3.8)

0.025pt BACK on THE RESDEV WAY (around 13.0)

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +59.6532points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 34.0641 points (+14.0641 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 134/192 = 69.79%  Backs : 38/123 = 30.89%

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

December :  +0.8487 points (+13.2195 points)

January LIM Score:

1st:      +0.098 (+0.098) Lay @ 2.75

2nd:     +0.049 (+0.147) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:      +0.098 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.3

4th:      +0.147 (+0.392) Lay @ 2.6

5th:      NO BET

6th:      +0.098 (+0.49)   Lay @ 3.7 (averaged)

7th:      RACING ABANDONED

8th:      NO BET

9th:      +0.588 (+1.078) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 11.0

10th:    +0.098 (+1.176) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 5.0

11th:    +0.1176 (+1.2936) Lay @ 2.9

12th:     -0.218  (+1.0756) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 61.0

13th:     -0.131  (+0.9446) Lay @ 1.81 : Back @ 8.0

14th:     -0.1       (+0.8446) Back @ 3.1

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