BOZmail – 15th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 15th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

4-25 FAKENHAM

No luck Thursday with the right idea but just out in the result with the first and second coming second and third. The Mighty Ash confirmed the theory though and makes the to follow list. No world beater but a steady improver who will win a chase. The ground was the influential factor of the day at Fontwell and the Moore horse handled it best.Some more small repair and onwards we go to try and put February to rights.

Not so hot on this effort as I’ve been on the last two but chosen as the best play on a tougher day and because I know one of the horses pretty well. Followed Zeroeshadesofgrey since his days at Neil King’s when he was a smart hurdler blessed with a bit of hurdle speed who was campaigned with the idea of becoming a smart chaser that never quite happened. Remember his debut chase at Wetherby quite well as he came in as an odds on shot I was keen to oppose and got totally outjumped. I’d say that marked most of his chase career although he managed to win one in the end and has just won his maiden PTP reasonably impressively. Still surprised to see him ending up in Hunter Chases though as he remained a better hurdler throughout to my eyes. Still prone to wayward jumping – out to left often – and just too small and not a natural over big fences for me.

That said he has speed still and showed it in a decent PTP win and I did expect the odds between the front two to be much closer. At 7/4 I almost switch to backing Zero which would have been a maiden back for me. Had many a lay success with him over chase fences. I’ve pondered long and decided I share the market view however and Hunter Chases are usually won by the best jumper which should be Risk a Fine who also hails from the savvy hunter stable and boasts the best jockey in the race.

So it’s a lay again on Zero. Staking down however compared to last two days with absolutely no desire to take risks on the Feb recovery and a result I won’t be surprised to see go astray.

 

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on ZEROESHADESOFGREY (around 2.75 and no greater than 3.0)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 46/63 = 73.01% :   BACKS: 8/42 = 19.04%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14),Magners & Gold Cup (Mar 15)&National (Apr 6)

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Wincanton (Feb 16)& M.Rasen(Feb 17)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid

Good Man Pat – Entered for the JLT (Mar 14)

All Currencies

Master Dino*

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 3)

Awaiting next weapons grade selection. Will shout when it appears.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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