BOZmail – 15th FEBRUARY (part two)

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 15th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.3763 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.1029 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Saturday play

1-15 ASCOT

The racing passed early inspection at Ascot and Haydock. Sadly my preferred play for Saturday was in the Kingwell at Wincanton but one must always go with what is there and as the weather forecast predicts problems with wind as the afternoon goes on, I’ll let the weather dictate and take on this early race at Ascot rather than the Hunter Chase at Haydock which isn’t scheduled until 5-00. By five, most of Lancashire might have blown away!

Neither race is easy despite the small fields and it’s one of those days where guesswork is involved and so stakes once more kept cautious. This race at Ascot translates to a similar scenario to that chosen at Exeter last Sunday before the weather intervened and you may remember my preference for Master Debonair over Sporting John. Form in the book dictates between the two but I am less bullish about the outcome in this one despite weights now levelled. The extra distance is perhaps more likely to suit Sporting John so the toss of the coin between the two probably comes down to whether Master Debonair can be expected to stay. We won’t know until we see it. A further doubt is sowed by the defection of Robbie Power who goes to Haydock for a couple of other important Tizzard trials including Elegant Escape and whilst we have an able sub in Jonjo, that does put Geraghty’s experience and strength as a marginal plus in a tight finish also for Sporting John over the scenario we had last week.

You remember then that I took them both on with Sir Psycho who races elsewhere today as a fav but there is a decent sub for him in Henderson’s Pipesmoker who provides the LIM cover and is no forlorn hope. Hope however is the word for all three of them really however as the result depends much on the unknowns of how much Sporting John and Pipesmoker have in their locker not yet shown on the racecourse and whether or not Master Debonair will stay.

On balance my call says he is likely to being out of Yeats and then his proven form in a better class race gives him the edge. Not one for the mortgage however. Caution prevails.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on SPORTING JOHN (around 2.4 : upper value parameter 2.6)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 6/10 = 60%  Backs: 1/5 = 20%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Exeter (Feb 16) & Ballymore (Mar 11),  Albert Bart (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Exeter (Feb 16)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Navan (Feb 16) &Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Exeter (Feb 16) & the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW on SATURDAY:

3-00 ASCOT – NORDANO @ 9/1

3-50 HAYDOCK – WELSH SAINT @ 10/3

4-10 ASCOT – NORMANDY SOLDIER @ 15/2

All three of these have a similar speculative each way chance on very competitive cards in which is sure to be challenging and heavy ground conditions so no serious betting for the BOZ but a 0.1pt BACK starter trade on each of the four that go to post with the usual advice of take the hedge at preferential odds when offered. 

An occasional each way acca also for me at 0.01pt. Total stake = 0.02pts 

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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