BOZmail – 15th FEBRUARY (part one)

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 15th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.3763 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.1029 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Saturday play

The double lay strikes again although we had to work really hard to get a price on Pookie Pekan who touched 4.65 on Thursday night and I managed a little bit at that expecting it to reappear Friday morning when Clondaw Westie was scratched but it never did. And I posted it and some 4.5 in running and worth noting if you are posting that prices often repeat so good tactic to note them and use them as marker posts if you do play in running. I was confident in the forecast winner when I saw how they were backing him and had some fun with my value on It’safreebee who actually ran a very promising effort all things considered and might be coming back to a chase win gradually based on how he stayed on again here for third after getting outpaced by the big two in the market. He gets on my to follow again for NTO when I think we might get a nice priced win out of him. He does retain some class I’d say and just needs to find the right race.

Storm Dennis hit around here midday today so maybe blown through now (fingers crossed) although there was a fair bit of rain again and Haydock must be in doubt I think. Inspections at all three NH meetings Saturday morning so I’ll suspend tonight’s decisions and publication until I know what is on and what’s not. We have four to follow horses entered and I’ve written them up below in case any should happen  

to take place. All in competitive Saturday cards and a small each way shout for all so a fun bet in prospect if Storm Dennis should fail to show and each race worthy of trading I’d say at the prices we are going to get.

Look out for Saturday 15th February BOZmail (part two) around 9am Saturday morning.

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 6/10 = 60%  Backs: 1/5 = 20%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – Entered for Ascot (Feb 15)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Haydock (Feb 15), Exeter (Feb 16) & Ballymore (Mar 11), 

                       Albert Bart (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Haydock (Feb 15) & Exeter (Feb 16)

Normandy Soldier* – Entered for Ascot (Feb 15)

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Navan (Feb 16) &Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Ascot&Wincanton(Feb 15) & Exeter (Feb 16) &

                                    the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW on SATURDAY:

1-37 WINCANTON – LIEUTENANT ROCCO @ 2/1

3-00 ASCOT – NORDANO @ 9/1

3-50 HAYDOCK – WELSH SAINT @ 10/3

4-10 ASCOT – NORMANDY SOLDIER @ 15/2

All four of these have a similar speculative each way chance on very competitive cards in which is sure to be challenging and heavy ground conditions so no serious betting for the BOZ but a 0.1pt BACK starter trade on each of the four that go to post with the usual advice of take the hedge at preferential odds when offered. 

An occasional each way acca also for me at 0.01pt. Total stake = 0.02pts 

Let’s hope we get a runner never mind a winner!

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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