BOZmail – 15th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SATURDAY DECEMBER 15th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

1-00 DONCASTER

Behind getting chinned, next worst is seconditis and certainly suffering with that at the moment but still making profit and just gotta keep going and keep consistent. The tide of winners will turn and have its run. But no arguments that finding losers is my forte and in answer to a few questions about what to do when the lay price is on the drift, the best advice is set yourself an upper limit and remember that no bet is always an option if it gets like Jarlath the other day and you are being asked to lay at 9/1 before the off. That’s not a risk I would have taken even though I was very keen to take him on (I got 4.8 early). Falls and the run of the race can still conspire against you any time so always keep an eye on bank management. And remember that if the price has gone, there is always another day. Caution can be seen as wimpish and maybe it is but prudence is the name of that nice lady on British Bake Off. Always do what she says!

On to week 3 of this service and a race to savour at Doncaster where in my humble opinion, the two to concentrate on are the two outsiders. Amour de Nuit is the lay as the novice of the company who was very disappointing LTO when upped to this sort of class against elders and hasn’t in truth beaten much so far anyway. Retains potential and was a good hurdler but is second in of the front two on my time figures and so a raiser of funds to win on the other three. All four are slightly ahead of their marks but the one with back class is Skelton’s Value at Risk who is a horse I’ve known personally since his Cheltenham 2015 effort where he was touted as a class hurdler (has won a Grade 2 in Ireland) but didn’t stay the three miles when expected he would and couldn’t quicken up the hill. Very much an inconsistent sort who hasn’t found form yet this season and has mixed distances and codes but as I say, is the one who retains class. This could be his day. Second in for me is Robbing the Prey who was a star in the making for Ruth Jefferson and hasn’t sparkled yet for the Oven Chips man but like Value at Risk is dropping in class here and taking on less experienced novices. For me there is value in a reversed forecast which I bring into the LIM bet on occasion.

 

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on AMOUR DE NUIT

0.2pt BACK on VALUE AT RISK

0.1pt REVERSED FORECAST on VALUE AT RISK & ROBBING THE PREY

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 12/14 = 85.71%

                                                         BACKS: 1/9 = 11.11%

 

**************************************************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 2:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Joe Cullen available to lay at 80.0 this morning on Betfair so those that do like to play risk free and got the 100/1 I recommended can hedge out now for a free bet over the Xmas period. I personally will be hanging on until after first game played – which I expect him to win –  with a view to hedging out with profit to use on the second leg of the staggered acca.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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