BOZmail – 15th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY AUGUST 15th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

5-30 SALISBURY

Hands up if you did your bit and worked on the price of our very welcome winner on Wednesday! I managed a bit of the 8/1 it drifted to 10 minutes before the off and averaged out at 8.6. What a difference the return to NH racing makes,eh? But all those days since August 1st concentrating on the importance of breaking even to make sure we bank the winnings when it comes along. The BOZmail in essence.

That and accurate race reads. Asylo a slow jumper and Skelton’s horse a bad jumper. Our boy lacks bottle but has class and in a race like that, well 8/1 was tremendous. Now to keep it in the coffers!!

You will also have noticed I hope a big flag waving signal for all future NH punting that we have confirmed this year. No Newland in the paddock when his hot faves run is a pointer to lay. Two ran stinkers at NA on Wednesday. Fourth time in a row we’ve got that right this year. I was expecting to be staking down with the way the weather was but that one meant me and the BOZmail paddock watching fraternity went the other way!!

Thursday you might not be surprised to hear is profit protection day. Almost headed to Tramore to stick with jumps racing but have found one on the flat in the UK that is ok so have decided on that to small liability instead.

It actually isn’t bad LIM fare. A more competitive race than the betting suggests and Prescott’s odds on hat trick winner is no cert. Carries yet another penalty as does our recent hero Victoriano who has a chance and a strong jockey booking. It is however Young Merlin that I would entrust beating the fav with were this a race I was going strong at. He has a 14lb weight turnaround with the fav for just 13 and a bit lengths when last they met. And ground conditions also more in his favour this time round. Stable/jockey booking also strong and I think the fav is very vulnerable here. Simple lay for me as Oisin on one of the rags  for Andrew Balding and a lightweight Gary Moore the other means this has a very anyone of five could win feel to it. Profit protection day nevertheless!

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on LAND OF OZ (around 1.6 : no greater than 1.9)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 146/216 = 67.59% :   BACKS: 43/148 = 29.05%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You 

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Hungerford,Newbury (Aug 17) & Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

Piedita

James Watt

Lord of the Lodge – Entered in the Gimcrack at York (Aug 23)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.22 points.

Staggered acca number 17: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the final staggered acca first leg emerges. Have an alternative approach use of the bank lined up to start in the Autumn. Never afraid to admit defeat.

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  US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

Hope you got your lay on Serena. As suspected, she didn’t show in Cincinnati and the problem is not a trivial one. Price will drift now. Keep an eye on and hedge when appropriate.I’ll report if I see another critical play time before the off. Doubt she will be a non runner. Nothing lost if she is.

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA at around 6.4 

0.25pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA at 40/1 

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF at 80/1 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN at 66/1 

0.25pt BACK ON DANIELLE COLLINS at 250/1  

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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