BOZmail – 15th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY APRIL 15th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

3-50 PONTEFRACT

Two winners Sunday! Long time since I did that!

Very nearly a no play day on Monday with just this race in the LIM qualifier bracket and I’m encouraged to give it a go as it seems to have similar quality to yesterday’s play in that even the rank outsider could win it! They are the best LIM plays in many ways and the double lay was indeed on yesterday and I was a tad timid in shying away from it.

The interesting horse for us in this is Rubenesque who was a jump fancy just a few days ago and pulled up inexplicably and was dismounted (seemed to lose his action) and yet comes out again as soon as for this marathon on the flat. Anybody smell a deflector? Stable still high in the running to form table (Rubenesque lost them their 100% record) and seeing as he was my on paper winner for that race and is the one in this who appeals most for the extreme flat distance on his breeding, I have to give it a go to minimum stake. The lay is harder to call but I go simply against the fav also to minimum stake as he is clearly favoured by the surface at Southwell and doesn’t look to enjoy the turf or this kind of quick ground anywhere near enough. For Rubenesque, all of whose recent wins have come on good to firm, the ground cannot come quick enough. Conditions in fact look ideal for him if the pulled up last time was indeed nothing to worry about. Second in for me and LIM saver is Galileo’s Spear who I think can reverse form with the fav at the weights but whose doubts lie in stable form and the fact that despite the fact that they ought to be ok for stamina, Galileo’s progeny often aren’t.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on TYNECASTLE PARK (around 2.75 : no greater than 4.0)

0.1pt BACK on RUBENESQUE

************************************************************************

This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 83/119 = 69.74% :   BACKS: 18/77 = 23.37%

NH HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Southfield Vic – Entered for Wincanton Sunday – 1st

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top – Entered for Wincanton Sunday – 3rd

*******************************************************

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.15 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 1)

4-35 WINCANTON – SOUTHFIELD VIC – 0.5pt BACK @ 4/5-WON

Not exactly how I saw it going!! Anybody take the in running coming into the straight where Southfield looked cooked? Well done if you did. I was too busy thinking the staggered acca was jinxed again! Showed the class on the flat. Jumped like a poodle!

That’s 0.5pt back into bank and 0.4pt for the second leg and relegation of the bet on hold for a while just in case I can finally get it going!  

***********************************************************

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

**************************************************************************************

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *