BOZmail – 14th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 14th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +11.8667 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +56.5195 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

4-20 BATH

Busy Saturday ahead with a strong To Follow bet in Ireland (see below) and a Bath LIM being aimed at the losing streak recovery that might have made it to first leg of the next staggered acca had it happened next week! 

Thanks to all those responding to my query re publishing shortlist system daily in the future. Quite a divisive issue as expected as I know some don’t like me bombarding with loads of bet potentials when the message is less is more ( and so it is! ) and it’s a fair point. The shortlist was devised as a one bet system but because the Betfair permed acca template is no longer available and the Tote Jackpot version is a multiple stake bet, I also feel it properly does not have a place as a daily feature on a BETLESSWINMORE service with the ‘bet less’ being the moot point. So I do think I’ll wrap the trial up as initially planned with this list at Bath today and publish the stats from the last seven day trial on here tomorrow then those that do want to continue receiving the Shortlist system publication daily can contact me to let me know. I will be compiling it in order to arrive at a daily nap for staggered acca purpose which will be what BETLESSWINMORE devotees would rather see. The publication of the entire daily shortlist system will be devised as a bolt on separate service for next year especially for those that want that MOREWINNERS but also MORE LOSERS! – and definitely more daily bets – approach. Hope that keeps everybody happy. 

And now on to the Saturday LIM as I seek to wipe that irksome September tricky season deficit from the record! Just September wrong again on Friday.

A mile handicap that has a strong fancy in for me in Tregonning’s Tell William. Up against similar LTO course winner Amorously who won on similar fast ground but in a slower time. Draw probably favours Amorously and the draw did play a part in bringing down our LIM on Thursday and should never be underestimated in any flat race. Jockey booking however and Stable form (100% in running to form table) sways me to the value of Tell William to overcome his penalty.  Plenty of other possibles to bring down Amorously under his penalty should my pick not fire. I actually fear Strict Tempo most with Sash and Elamirr both in there.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on AMOROUSLY (around 3.5 : no greater than 3.9)

0.2pt BACK on TELL WILLIAM ( around 6.5 : worth taking at least 50% stake early)

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 156/239 = 65.27% :   BACKS: 45/162 = 27.77%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. Transferred now to starting bank for SHORTLIST SYSTEM PERMED ACCA BET which will start sometime this month.Still watch only for the time being but encouragement again at Chester on Friday. Nap selection of the day featured in bold for this final day of the trial and full stats to be published tomorrow. Plan is to then return to staggered acca approach next week using what the shortlist system nap of the day approach throws up. Given the BOZ grade A assessment treatment before it is published as a recommended bet.

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 14/9/19 at Bath:

2-00 Wild Dancer – Wiff Waff – Jaganory

2-35 Mac McCarthy – Top Buck

3-10* Overpriced Mixer – Space Ace

3-45 Walk on Walter -Oeil de Tigre – Mountain Peak

4-20 Sash – Tell William – Strict Tempo – Elamirr – Hold Still

4-55* Mojave

5-30 Pink Flamingo – Glamorous Rocket – Good Luck Fox – Secret Facts

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 13/9/19 at Chester:

1-50 Breathalyze (1st)

2-25 Know no Limits (2nd) – Iva Reflection (U) – Powertrain (1st)

3-00 Noble Prospector (1st) – Torochica (2nd) – Conundrum (U)

3-30 Sir Maximilian (1st) – Moraawed (U) – Gabrial The Saint (2nd)

4-05* Two Bids (4th) – Mayne (2nd)

4-40 Lorelina (NR) – Gabrial The One (2nd) – Superkid (4th)

5-15 Calder Prince (2nd) – Intense Style (U) – Imperial State (U) 

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Longchamp (Oct 6) &Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for  Newbury (Sep 21)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

4-15 LEOPARDSTOWN – DEIRDRE @ 12/1 – 1pt BACK

Very good value each way bet I think if ground doesn’t ease and Goodwood form and times are repeated. Only Elarqam and Magical in there with him on times and I was just so impressed with the speed shown at the end of the Goodwood race off a fast pace. Same could happen again here. Snap that double figure price now with a degree of confidence that’ll you’ll get a good run and opportunities to trade in running.

I’m going a strong 1pt starting bet with a couple of 0.5 point increments lined up to hedge in running. One of those might happen before the off if the money comes.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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