BOZmail 14th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 14th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +15.2336 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.5328 points (+4.5328 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.6863 points (+11.6863 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 76/108 = 70.37%  Backs : 19/63 = 30.15%

NO BET

Sitting out on Monday. Do have one bet for Tuesday and could be busy at Kelso on Wednesday but still very much September fare. Spent Saturday night watching the US Open women’s final in preparation for the French Open which starts next week.

Good stuff. My thoughts on Ms Osaka (published elsewhere) reproduced below.

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1       (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Sep26) & (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered @ Kelso (Sep 16)

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press – Entered @ Kelso (Sep 16)

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius Entered @ Kelso (Sep 16)

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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THE BOZ on NAOMI OSAKA’s FORTNIGHT@FLUSHING MEADOW:

It was a great win and she is a serious force for good in the world. Not just tennis. Funny and modest and strong. With a lethal forehand!

Interestingly, she is very incomplete as a tennis player so far. Quite one dimensional. But she hits it hard and what they call ‘through you'. Opponents haven't got to grip with that side of her yet. She needs some to test her and the absence of Barty,Andrescu,Halep etc at this tournament assisted what was a stuttering passage. She was quite lucky to get past Misaki Doi who had her on the ropes and Marta Kostyuk also scared her witless.

But yes, she has a vital inner calm that allows her to regroup when in trouble. She learned that since last May when we saw her at Edgbaston. She played dismally there. Threw the towel in a couple of times and lost badly at Wimbledon too. Putintseva beat her twice. There's a player not afraid to test her game and they were due to play in the semi final here before Brady knocked out the Russian. That might have been interesting.

So Osaka has work still to do on her game but you can't argue with three slams by the age of 22. And the comeback here was impressive. Azarenka had her really at 2-0 and 40-30 second set but Osaka had already shown she could play through Azarenka and gambled on the crunch break point and it paid off. She got belief from that I'd say. And Azarenka all along knew that if she didn't see her off early, she might regret it.

Ultimately, Osaka blew her off court with sheer power. Not been that many women players in the history of the game with that capability.

It is never enough on its own ultimately. Serena developed a wide range to her game as she went on. Dinara Safina never won a slam despite having the power. She lacked the other requisite components. Mentality being the biggest one. Osaka does have that in bucketloads. Smart woman.

Reminds me of Michelle Obama.

She does indeed bring hope in dark times.

c.THEBOZ – September 2020

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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