BOZmail – 14th OCTOBER revised

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY OCTOBER 14th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.2887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.536 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY 

6-15 BELMONT PARK

Not done much US LIMing of late but have been offered a chance to go over to the states to paddock watch in November (Brexit withstanding) so time to get back in the groove. I’ve sorted this one for Monday evening to make up for the paucity of UK action at the moment. Belmont not one of my traditional tracks but I’ve watched it a lot and the presence of standard tracking and sectional timing does make consistency in tipping theoretically easier in the US. But they don’t do much jump racing so my likelihood of a total shift over remains distant!

I take on the fav here which is the neatly named Freudian Sip who is short at around 6/5 on UK tissue and is closely matched with both Tailspin and Champagne Chills who act as LIM cover. The latter named has the jockey booking and the favourable draw so can be considered a distinct likely winner. US racing however is about looking for the monster winners that do occur on a regular basis and paying for them by opposing false favs. Ridolfo is my play in that vein. Will need to recover his early summer form when he ran up a string of decent placed efforts and has gone off the boil since but the betting value is there at 25/1 and I do think he’ll just need a decent break from the box and an early posi to be right in the mix. All are maidens (Champagne Chills is credited with a win in a stewards race) and it will be a simple case of Ridolfo rediscovering his consistency to give us a decent shout at a big collect. LIM looks value locked whatever.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on FREUDIAN SIP (around 2.2 : No greater than 2.8)

0.1pt BACK on RIDOLFO (26.0 or better)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 172/262 = 65.64% :   BACKS: 49/176 = 27.84%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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