BOZmail – 14th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 14th  2019 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

*******************************************

2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

**************************************************

THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.3557 points

*************************************************

BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +62.418 points

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

2-45 SEDGEFIELD

The weekend’s LIM reverses repaired with the first backed winner in a while and I’ve looked hard for one to push on with on Thursday but the three qualifying races all lack appeal and this least of them so I’m afraid it’s caution time again – not wanting to give back yesterday’s winnings.

The key to this race looks to lie in which Nigel Hawke horse to fancy and although its the sort of race to answer neither!, one of them probably does win it with Ballycrystal and Bryden Boy not out of it but both with negatives. Point N Shoot is the value back and has the better of the Buckley brothers on board and with course and distance also on his CV, that’s three positives and he would have been a back but for the  double negative of high in the weights and not a certain to like the ground. Both big negs really them so I don’t rule him out and if it were a back race, he’d be it but I’d rather play small lay the lesser fancied fav who is a serious quirky sort for whom the case can be made but he is very short for his chance. Lesser jockey on is a big negative for him and I’ll take the value of three feasible ones to beat him and a rag. This is the sort of race where the rag could win. But basement barrell LIM stuff so sit on the winner and play the patience game. Better stuff coming later in the week.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on LORD BALLIM (around 2.8 : no greater than 3.0)

***************************************************

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 192/290 = 66.20% :   BACKS: 53/193 = 27.46%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

5th:    +0.096 (+0.752) Lay @4.4 : Back @ 3.85

6th:    +0.147 (+0.899) Lay @ 1.75

7th:    +0.196 (+1.095) Lay @ 4.2

8th:    +0.343 (+1.438) Lay @ 2.1

9th:    -0.475 (+0.963) Lay @ 2.9

10th:  -0.3425(+0.6205) Lay @ 1.97 : Back @ 5.0

11th:  +0.144 (+0.7645) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 5.0

12th:  +0.196 (+0.9605) Lay @ 3.85

13th:  +0.596 +(1.5565) Lay @ 2.48 : Back @ 5.0

*****************************************************  

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

*******************************************************

WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer – Entered at Cheltenham (Nov 17)

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC 

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh 

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Nordano – Entered for Cheltenham (Nov 16)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes – Entered for Newcastle (Nov 15)

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23),King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger – Entered for Cheltenham (Nov 15) & Haydock (Nov 23)

Welsh Saint 

Normandy Soldier

Ribble Valley

Kid Commando

Up The Straight

*****************************************************

HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY:

2-35 EXETER – VIRGINIA CHICK  @ 7/1 – 0.1pt BACK – 7th

(Backed @ 9.8 : Hedged before the off @ 8.0) 

3-50 AYR – LADY BOWES @ 9/4 or better – 1pt BACK -4th

(Backed @ 5.5 : hedged before the off @ 4.2) P/L on the day = 0

Well, Virginia Chick was disappointing and is off the list for that and takes Commodore Barry with her. Traded at 4.5 in running but not sure why. Never in it I’d say and I was stake back in bank before the off and fairly unimpressed. Both horses may come back on in time but need to develop now. Virginia with her winner’s mark and Commodore as a seconditis novice who just needs more experience.

As for Lady B, well I did trade the race professionally after talking to Richards stable contacts and the 7/2 was very tasty and easily hedged last night. As soon as I saw the money for her, I played out of Lady B and also did some laying on the Archie Watson horse. The Richards record at Ayr is not to be sniffed at when the money is down.

I was still decent plus in my book on Lady B and rooted for her and her antics at the start were more settled and she ran up with pace early ok but those two caveats were there alright. Didn’t handle the heavy and hit her flat spot again. Badly this time. More like the debut run but possibly because of being up against a serious good Richards one who upped the pace quite markedly and she was caught cold. Did her best work at the end again and stayed on from 7th into 4th so some encouragement for her Grand National chances!! Needs to jump a fence now I reckon but she’s in again Friday on the Tapeta at Newcastle where Jimmy does like to win bumpers. Interesting if she goes there. Disappointing but far from a catastrophe. Know more now and she will improve for the going up in trip I’d say. The flat spot is a worry. That might be lack of speed or concentration or dropping bit and she probably needs to grow out of that. If its a latent speed deficiency you’d worry but the run at Carlisle doesn’t suggest that. May be a soft ground horse though. And the Tapeta might suit.

We’ll see. Still think she is a possible for the 2024 Grand National. Gold Cup horse might be disappearing though!

PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitabilty generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *