BOZmail 14th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 14th  2020

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 107/147 = 72.78%  Backs : 29/93 = 31.18%

1-40 CHELTENHAM

No complaints regarding Protektorat. Won the jumping ribbon hands down. Mossy Fen was sloppy and Southfield Stone not quick enough. So got that one wrong. Only one thing to do about that as you know!

I’m not wild about taking on Fusil Raffles again but I did have a long hard look at the alternative 2-42 at Uttoxeter. We have to follow horses in each but to be honest I don’t fancy either all that much and want only trades for my to follow quartet on Saturday. Both races are competitive affairs for the favs to take on and Fusil Raffles does indeed have much more to contend with this time in Quel Destin,Zakhareva & Eldorado Allen (Gumball and Le Patriote also difficult to rule out) and because of the lesser liability on him, I have ultimately plumped for that race. Did consider going no bet day after the reverses of two of the past three days but still feel the November momentum is there and am keen to push at that annual plus score still. So in I go! Conservative stakes however!

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on FUSIL RAFFLES (around 2.4 or lower if you get offered)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Carroll’s Milan 

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Fontwell (Nov 15)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ King George (Dec 26)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Taunton (Nov 12) & Fontwell (Nov 15)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Ucanaver 

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW on FRIDAY:

2-33 NEWCASTLE – PRETTYLITTLETHING @ 3/1 – 0.15pt BACK

And that’s why I do more trading & laying favs than backing winners! I initially took my back at 14.5 and hedged it back at 11.5 meaning I then had the 3/1 bet I was angling for as a free bet. It was obvious to me from the market there was more knowledge in the race than I’d had when I wrote my tip up and suggested the price at 3/1 was ok. Mulholland obviously knew different and he’s not a stable to mess with. Had they backed it back down to 3/1, I’d have been confident of a win and may well have backed it again. But they did not, they let it drift as far as 21.0 which was an absurd price at which point the rat is smelt. One of you guys alerted me to the fact that Andy Holding was strong on the favourite and knowing he is a tipster for Oddschecker I looked the form of that animal through thoroughly. If you know my style now, you’d know that was in the lay category for me – going up in class and carrying a penalty for LTO win.

Then I saw it jumping and remembered that Holding – a massive public tipster noted for his ability to nail longshots – was bigging up a short priced fav that the Boz’s methods would be dead keen on laying. Seeing how it was jumping, I piled in. Massive win race for me that would have been bigger still if Prettylittlething had benefited from the carnage as it looked for a minute that she might.

But that’s why playing the market in these races is so important. I shan’t keep banging on about it next year. Been banging on too long and LIM does still work without trading (not today though. It was however LIM theory that led to my win in this. That and the Bozmailer who pointed me to the public tip on the fav. Did Holding actually know it was going to fall? I’m saying nothing. Only that the bookmakers (who he works for) rubbed their hands with glee when it fell over. Jump racing. Trust me, play the markets every time every day of the week!). BOZ

P.s. Because I know a lot of you prefer it, I settle this as a race loss for the sheet consistent with what I said on the sheet. And remove Prettylittlething from the to follow. Not that she was ever going to win this race according to the market. So maybe a little unfair on her. Market manipulation of races however is part of what we have to learn. Big, big thing to look out for. Actually one of the reasons I have that rule of six horses or less for LIM. Less horses per race to study makes it easier to know what to expect and spot the smelly signs that things are going on when they are. That Prettylittlething price was one sign. The Holding tip was another. Might have not felt as I did without that second smelly sign. So many thanks to the BOZmailer who flagged that up. Really good to see you looking around for things like that. They do matter. And I can only cover so much. I was actually busy studying Saturday when I got that heads up! Tend not to have time to check what other tipsters are saying much at all any more!  

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

1-40 CHELTENHAM – ELDORADO ALLEN @ 4/1 – 0.15pt BACK

2-15 CHELTENHAM – AL DANCER @ 9/1 – 0.25pt BACK

2-42 UTTOXETER – CARROLS MILAN @ 5/2 – 0.15pt BACK

3-55 CHELTENHAM – UCANAVER @ 7/2 – 0.15pt BACK

Get the best prices you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are offered.

Typical uber competitive Saturday fare during a Cheltenham weekend and I make no apologies for going back to trading on Saturday after what went down on Friday! Al Dancer my most hopeful winner of the day but no more competitive race than that and The Boz will simply be backing all four at best prices I can get to hedge back when appropriate (remembering to leave some 1.1 and 1.01 in running leverage if possible) and also have a 0.01pt ACCA the four because they are all on my to follow for a reason and whilst I can pick holes in all four’s chances (mainly because of the strength of opposition) I do consider all in with a sporting chance should it turn out to be their day!

Shall enjoy cheering them home! 

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +44.7352 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 29.2159 points (+9.2159 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 45.2698 points (+37.2698 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3985 points (-0.6015 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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