BOZmail – 14th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY MAY 14th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

4-40 SEDGEFIELD

Well, that’ll do my confidence good and my first proper winner of the month alongside a correct assertion that we were on the value. One of my strategies sometimes when the lays aren’t working is to drop them out and/or try half stake double lays and seeing as the former was successfully landed on me yesterday with Kilcara’s defection, I’ll see if I can’t manage a much needed back up success to little liability to try and get the month back on track without risking taking one step forward and two steps back as has tended to be the way so far this month.

Before I leave Monday, just a word for Shoals Bay who ended runner up on his chase debut and travelled like a big danger on the flat but hung left throughout every jump. Goes on to my to follow list for NTO if he should be tried going left handed which looks to me like it might be worth a try. He has speed for a chaser if he can get the jumping right and the stable obviously fancied him here going on the market.We did well I reckon to get him beat.

On to Tuesday and that double lay play in a race where both market leaders have negatives. Burning Issues has the penalty to carry for the win LTO and a strong 8lb largely I suspect because the handicapper suspects trainer Joanne Foster of running a pacemaker to land a touch LTO. Might just be she has improved this horse drastically but drastic it will have been based on Irish form which was totally naff. Might have liked Sedgefield of course and gets it again but no pacemaker this time and Sedge is a front runners track so he might have to make it himself this time and find it tough.

Quest for Life has to give him 19lb and is an unconvincing chase maiden from a stable on the cold list. That’s his negative.

The other three all have a chance and my value pick was Zolfo at 5/1 when tissues came out. Already backed down to 100/30 and could be fav by the off so get on early. He had his LTO form boosted when Goodthyneaway won at Plumpton on Sunday. Not brilliantly handicapped but stable in form and proved in a sequence last season that this would be a plausible winning mark. Of especial interest to me if he sets out to lead in this.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on BURNING ISSUES (around 3.75 : not greater than 4.0)

0.1pt LAY on QUEST FOR LIFE   (around 3.5 : not greater than 4.0)

0.1pt BACK on ZOLFO at best price you can get.

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 99/144 = 68.75% :   BACKS: 24/93 = 25.80%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.8478 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 3)

Will shout soon as next leg emerges

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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