BOZmail – 14th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY MARCH 14th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

6-30 SOUTHWELL

I thank you! Luck did return and two bets on the day. Both won with that beauty The Jugopolist scoring at 50/1. 2nd day of Cheltenham and no losers. That would be my bigger boast and the reason the guys who named this service got it right. More evidential example of the importance of breaking even. Could have been paying back yesterday’s losses but wasn’t. Always aiming and staking to stay around evens waiting for the day the serious value back comes in.

And he was value. Bless him. Showing my age by revealing that I’ve known this fella since he was a boy. You had to move quick to get the 50/1 last night but it resurfaced on the exchanges just before the off. And then he went 70/1 in running (in a four horse race by that stage!) when he was briefly joined up front. Well done if you took some more at that. I didn’t but redeemed myself by not hedging once he got down to single figures either. Been watching him for years. Knew he’d do it once he started pulling away again.

So Altior and Tiger Roll were upstaged! In BOZmailer eyes anyways!

And the importance of breaking even stays important as I play to preserve for a while now until the next steaming value comes along.

Chosen the historic night at Southwell for a modest celebratory play. First sand meet under floodlights in the UK. Worthy of celebrating but I found a race I liked so not a gesture without self interest! Chance to recoup on Giancomo Casanova who caused us such grief in the Feb stats. No taking him at SP in this! He’s 3/1 third fav but I’m lumping him in a small double lay with the Mark Johnston fav Key to Power. Both have no form on the surface which is so crucial at Southwell and the other three all have course and distance winning form. Fair Alibi also has better time figures than his two compadres in the fav stakes and Giancomo also has other negatives in the going up in class and stable and jockey now on the cold list stakes. Carrying a penalty also. Be very surprised if he can win this.

Not going daft though. Consolidation day. And don’t go taking silly prices on Giancomo and undoing all your good work today. Especially if you got some of that 70/1.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on KEY TO POWER (around 2.8 and no greater than 3.2)

0.1pt LAYonGIANCOMO CASANOVA (around 4.0:no greater than 5.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 62/89 = 69.66% :   BACKS: 14/58 = 24.13%

THE BOZ’s CHELTENHAM BLOG – DAY FIVE:

My list of To Follow entries is as follows:

Day one:

Itchy Feet -33/1 for the Supreme Novices – 0.1pt WIN

(3rd – Good start for traders and each way backers! I backed 0.1pt @ 42.0 and traded back in running as he jumped the last into 2nd place – 0.4pt @ 6.0)

Lady Buttons- 11/1 for the OLBG – 0.1pt WIN

(4th – No profit here but ran an honourable race in moving through the field into fifth allowing a hedge out. I took it given how well Ruby was going! Just goes to show.

0.1pt @16.5 – 0.1pt LAY @ 11.0. Break Even.)

Indian Opera – NON RUNNER

Knocknanuss – 16/1 for the Arkle – 0.05pt WIN

(Another triumph for trading. Backed 0.05pt@75.0 and because he had his spell in the lead while fancied horses fell, traded back 0.1pt @ 25.0)

Day two:

Lady Buttons – NON RUNNER

Tombstone – NON RUNNER

Day Three Review:

Altior was sublime to watch but Tiger Roll was a serious nailed on winner. 22 lengths!

Think I might also now have the winner of the Grand National. That’s a race I rarely win in. No doubt he’ll fall over if I put him in a staggered acca!

The Boz resumes as trader on day three with just a two race play day again. The JLT now very interesting with Vinndication back in. They have reportedly sharpened his jumping up and both he and Lostintranslation will have to improve on Sandown jumping but I trust them so to do. Was treating the Tizzard ‘horse for the course’ as my nap of the week in sentimental terms (Tiger Roll was my logical nap for the Yankee purpose) but the Tizzard stable form is of concern so no upping the stake on him and to some extent, I’m now preferring the Bailey horse as the value and with that owner/trainer clue to his current wellbeing. You don’t pay again to re-enter a horse without good reason. I’ll go dutch level stake with a view to trading on both again.

Likewise Frodon in the Ryanair. I kept him out of my Yankee with the uncertainty about whether he might attempt the Gold Cup. A decision I regret now in view of Lalor’s no show effort. At least with Frodon and Frost there’ll be maximum effort!

And they have a realistic chance I’d say. 13/2 about right. I’ll be trading on that in running too and with front running likely, a chance to practice your timing about when you take back. Enjoy.

Day three:

Frodon – 13/2 for the RYANAIR – 0.1pt WIN

Vinndication – 9/1 for the JLT – 0.1pt WIN

Lostintranslation – 7/2 for the JLT – 0.1pt WIN

Day four:

Elegant Escape

Tombstone

More Cheltenham blogging on the morrow………….

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14)

Ask Paddington – Entered for Newcastle (Mar 16)

Lady Buttons

Ribble Valley

La Bague au Roi

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication – Entered for the JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Knocknanuss

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Exeter (Mar 18)

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan – Entered for Newcastle (Mar 16)

Tombstone – Entered for County Hurdle (Mar 15) & Kempton (Mar 16)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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