BOZmail – 14th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY MARCH 14th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.1306 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.2401 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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LESS IS MORE: Saturday play

2-15 FONTWELL

No arguing with Swaffham Bulbeck. I was pretty impressed with that and pleased for our Bozmailer owner. Might have a good horse there! Got that one wrong and was still working on getting over being right on predicting (and betting on) Goshen to fall at the last. Hated being right about that. The move from gambler to trader isn’t all positive. The upside being here that the market was so bullish on Swaffham that the damage wasn’t terrible. Don’t mind being wrong so much when they are backed down to 4/7 and lower!! Gutted for Gary though. My absolute favourite trainer who never ever has any bloody luck! Worst bit for me is that I know that if AP had been on board I wouldn’t have laid it. Acrobat and cool headed champion on top required. Poor old Jamie. No justice ultimately.He just didn’t do anything to deserve it. Fate is sometimes a cruel,cruel sod.

And it was Friday the 13th…….Thyme Hill suffered from that as well I thought or may be not quite good enough. At least Hobbs got a run out of him. Likewise Tizzard on Lostintranslation who ran a cracker and an in running traders dream. He looked on for it two out but two speedier types just did him. Got my 3.0 lay far away from the finish so I could roar him up the hill! That’s when being a trader is groovy! Each way punters will also be happy with LIT who did drift massively in the market and repaid the faith in him with a run that does give them something to build on for next year. No crabbing the champ though who was exactly that. Predicted by the shortlist as you might imagine! Friday the 13th! 

So that’s Chelters over and done with another year. Lots of drama and hard work for punters and tipsters alike. Thank goodness for Fontwell where we head back to in the aftermath. Shortlisters and BOZmailers alike can start thinking about making proper profits again!

Misty Whisky looks short in this. Has a light weight and the shortlist hero jockey from Cheltenham’s lucky last on board but has been beaten favourite last twice and good bumper form doesn’t always translate to hurdling. I’m for taking her on with Daytime Ahead and Duhallow Gesture. Both have better times than the fav who although finishing twice in last two races has taken part in notably slow events. Daytime has Mr Fontwell experience – Nick Schofield – in the saddle and Duhallow – who is top rated and top weighted for a reason – gets a four pound pull from the rider allowance that may also well tell here.

The Boz however is still looking for the Cheltenham week dark horse and Nikap sort of fits that bill at 16/1 or 18/1 in places as I write. Up in class from the Uttoxeter win but it was achieved in good time and a decent run in a listed event behind Floressa NTO suggests there is improvement to come and that stable think a bit of this one. Had a prep race at Donny after a break at this level that wasn’t terrific but reason to suspect will come on for that and whilst still a bit high in the weights, down 10lb from LTO taking rider’s allowance into consideration and that gives him a chance. Makes the shortlist whilst the fav doesn’t. That’ll do for me. 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on MISTY WHISKY (around 2.1 or less if you can get it)

0.1pt BACK on NIKAP

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 19/32 = 59.37%  Backs: 8/24 = 33.33%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

8th:     +0.22 (+0.529) Lay not matched : Back @ 3.2

9th:     -0.208 (+0.321) Lay @ 1.79 : Back @ 4.1

10th:   -0.1 (+0.221) Back @ 12.0

11th:   +0.735 (+0.956) Lay @ 1.28 : Backs @ 10.0 & 13.0

12th:    RACING ABANDONED

13th:   -0.175 (+0.781) Lay @ 1.7

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op 

Verdana Blue 

Maire Banrigh*  

Thyme Hill* 

Nordano* 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Lostintranslation* 

Cat Tiger*              

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Magic of Light* – Entered for Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill – Entered for Taunton (Mar 17)

Quick Wave 

It’safreebee – Entered for Carlisle & Market Rasen (Mar 15) 

Captain Zebo

Ellens Way

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CHELTENHAM TO FOLLOWS/TRADES & ACCAS for DAY FOUR:

2-50 Thyme Hill – 0.15pt BACK @ 9/2

(Backed @ 6.6 : Hedged @ 5.6) = P/L = 0

         Lieutenant Rocco – 0.1pt BACK @ 20/1

(Backed @ 44.0 : Hedged @ 34.0) = P/L = 0

         Cat Tiger – 0.05pt BACK @ 40/1

(Backed @ 120.0 : Hedged @ 80.0) = P/L = 0

3-30 Lostintranslation – 0.15pt BACK @ 13/2

(Backed @ 14.0 : Hedged in running 0.35pt @ 3.0) = P/L = 0.196pts

Got all the Albert Bartlett as free bets. Could have gone in running with Thyme Hill as he traded even money/odds on at the finish so missed a trading trick there. No regrets. Cheltenham as always proves bloody hard work! The Accas bank being the one that has borne the brunt. Rest of the Cheltenhamless year to repair that!

Enjoyed the Gold Cup and got back all my acca losses with that trade so broke even overall on the festival betting (wrote that before Indefatigable won the last picked by the shortlist!) with LIM and Politologue actually meaning I had a winning meeting!

Hope you kept your vest intact! But thank god it’s over,eh?

NH TO FOLLOWS/TRADE for Saturday:

3-00 UTTOXETER – NORDANO @ 8/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Usual advice. Take the best price you can get and hedge either before the off or in running when offered preferential odds.

Nordano has a huge hike in the weights to shoulder but is progressive and a good run can be expected again on the ground. Front runner so trader’s dream and being left to in running should be ok although has been outclassed a bit in finishes when upped in class in the past so I wouldn’t be leaving it too late to hedge back. Unless he’s ten lengths clear again like LTO perhaps!

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WIN YANKEE FOR THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 11/2 (Gold Cup,Friday) – 3rd

Sporting John @ 3/1 (Ballymore,Wednesday) – 7th

Marie Banrigh @ 12/1 (Arkle,Tuesday) – FELL

Thyme Hill @ 4/1 (Albert Bartlett,Friday) – 4th

0.01pt WIN YANKEE : Total Stake = 0.11points – LOST

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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