BOZmail – 14th JUNE

THIS IS A RESEND AS EMAIL PROBLEMS AT BOZ TOWERS.NOT SURE IF THIS WENT.

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY JUNE 14th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

4-05 YORK

Sometimes disruption is a good thing and suspension of Uttoxeter not only pointed us to a winner but I’ve inherited five good horses to follow on the flat retrospectively from that Newbury maiden that Ocean Paradise came runner up in. Plus Maydanny aswell who ran well enough and will surely win in time probably over further and on better ground I would have said.Raise You won the Newbury maiden you’ll have seen hence my confidence today as he’s already on our list. Pays to go back to your study the morning after sometimes. I don’t always do that (except when betting hefty) and should probably do it more. Course we’ll never know whether Uttoxeter would have come up right but of the two in the end, the Nottingham effort inspired more confidence in me because of finding the Raise You connection. Never spotted that in my night before trawl. Frontman’s withdrawal helped of course. He was main reason for dismissing on Wednesday night’s trawl. Such is the whittling down process for LIM daily. No small task.

On to Friday and as I said when I came back off hols, more emphasis on backs than lays for a bit whilst my lay mojo isn’t firing fab and I’m doing well picking winners. I like this Listed race as anyone of the three older horses could win but my pick is the rank outsider whose form is better than it looks and best of it is on softened ground.

He beat my hotly fancied Dashing Willoughby as a 25/1 rag last year and he could do that again here as he then went into Group 1 and finished just 10 lengths behind none other than Magna Grecia. MG turned out to be a good horse this year!

Just one outing for Raakib Alhawa this season finishing five lengths off King Of Comedy in a Listed  which is why he is outsider here but that was on firmer ground. He’ll do better with the cut and is value here getting nigh on a stone off the older horses. I’ll lay the other young horse – Happy Power – to my minimum as he has the distance to prove and looks held by several of the older more experienced horses to my eye. A small liability day again keeping it tight whilst the weather is turbulent.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on HAPPY POWER (around 3.5 ; no greater than 4.2)

0.1pt BACK on RAAKIB ALHAWA (11.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 109/162 = 67.28% :   BACKS: 29/105 = 27.61%

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Using the 2.74 profit I posted on the French Open Portfolio (without picking the winner until final stage!) as a pot to play in the Wimbledon warm up events – Nottingham,Edgbaston and Eastbourne. Will be attending for a day at each. Usual portfolio approach on a smaller scale. Outrights only. Starting this week with two in the bottom half of the Nottingham draw.

NOTTINGHAM 2019 OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO:

0.25point BACK on MAGDALENA RYBARIKOVA @ 9/1 – Eliminated

0.25point BACK on DONNA VEKIC @ 7.6 on Betfair exchange

Vekic a set up second round as I write but just found out they are playing indoors on hardcourt because of the weather! Tempers my enthusiasm somewhat!! There is a hedge on Betfair as I write at 5.0. I might consider that. Will watch a bit and study draw again and report back.

Vekic won and plays Mladenovic next. I shall take the 4.0 or 5.0 hedge in the outrights if I get offered it as this is her tough test and I’m not so keen now I know some of the matches are happening indoors. Supposed to be a grass court tournament but of course, the weather isn’t playing ball.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the Queens Vase at Ascot (June 19)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

Ocean Paradise

Maydanny

Roseman

Pour Me A Drink – Entered for Sandown (June 15)

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars – Entered for Doncaster (June 16)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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