BOZmail – 14th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY JULY 14th  2019 

(please note that Monday July 15th BOZmail may be delayed due to personal circumstances that have arisen. Everything will be done to achieve delivery early Monday morning at the latest)

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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Absolutely no begrudging Simona Halep that. The improvement was sensational and a joy to behold (and it did mean that my original premise that Serena would find someone to match her somewhere was also upheld. If you stuck it out to the end with a non-traded portfolio,you are a winner! I’ll take my small loss on the chin. Been at it too long to take any chances with Serena on grass!). Halep’s court coverage was the dominant factor. She set out to keep herself in the rallies at all costs and achieved it with interest. With hindsight, easy to say that Serena did get an assisted passage to the final and was only really tested there. A test she failed. That 24th grand slam win is gonna take some getting now. 

I take a bow out of tennis for a while. A losing Wimbledon after so much work is a tough blow but the horses have worked their way to form during the fortnight so I can’t complain. Only a miniscule loss at Wimbledon and a moderate plus overall in 2019 with one slam still to go. Never grumble when you are ahead!! 

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

4-25 PERTH

Another masterclass ride from Coleman on Ennistown assisted by a poor jump from Pingshou at three out resulting in a good LIM call against the book. Always satisfying. That Cartmel time figure was the clue. Ennistown has speed for a chaser. Goes now on the list of horses to follow and franks the Francky Du Berlais form I am also keen on.He also makes to follow list.

The Boz takes Coleman on Sunday with a race where I have personal insight into the three market leaders. I’ll be away on my delayed 35th wedding anniversary celebration so leaving you to see if I get this one right. It does make the whole process easier when you have some gen on the horses as individuals and although my knowledge of Emerald Rocket is by proxy, it is more now than just an on paper assessment as I went to the races with a fellow (and relatively new) BOZmailer a fortnight back and got to learn about the horses he has a share in – one of whom beat Emerald Rocket at Fakenham a couple of runs back. Said BOZmailer also introduced me to the workings of a trainer I knew little about with whom he had personal dealings and I cannot emphasize enough how this shared information is of tremendous value when you are doing the intense daily race reads that I do to produce LIM. I have been able to back the personal information up with on paper research which has given me a whole new angle into a stable I would have only had a one dimensional on paper stats view of before now. That is going to find us some winners in the months ahead I can assure you. I now know what I am looking for where that particular stable is concerned.

As you know, I have a local working knowledge of the Moffat stable and know The Steward inside out. We have been waiting for his win as his back story and early results for Jimmy suggested that a value win was somewhere in the future for this horse. It may well still be and Pitt Farm have had three winners from their last three runners so for such a small operation that is called blinding form. You can’t rule a The Steward win out here but try as I might to make him a back here, I am still swayed by his lack of finishing toe regularly displayed and thus only score him as LIM cover here. My stronger fancy is McCain’s Middlebrow as we go again with a horse that has already done us a huge recent favour at Ffos Las. There will be those surprised to see him back over hurdles after such a proficient Chase success but there are clues again in the time achieved and the fact that he now doesn’t carry a penalty and thus only has to give a 2lb differential to Emerald Rocket who will get a classy ride. Coleman however may not this time be on the quicker horse if my figures are right.I do have bank management in mind to the extent of not wanting to detract from the last two day’s gains but with Emerald Rocket’s price at 4/6, there is only one way to play to get value!

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on EMERALD ROCKET (around 1.7 : no greater than 1.96) 

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 125/187 = 66.84% :   BACKS: 36/126 = 28.57%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

Ennistown

Francky Du Berlais

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick – Entered at Windsor (Jul 15)

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 14: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the next opportunity emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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