BOZmail 14th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


TUESDAY JULY 14th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.5177 points (+0.5177 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.0733 points (+6.0733 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.485 points (-0.515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.607 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.8946 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 20/27 = 74.07%  Backs : 2/10 = 20%

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LESS IS MORE: 

1-20 SOUTHWELL

Monday’s Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on LIVE STREAM ( around 3.3. Take the best price you can get and hedge when appropriate and when preferential odds appear)

Laid@ 3.08 : Hedged 0.25pt@4.13 :P/L = 0.098pts

Worth a quick reflection on the past couple of days LIM I feel. Some of you did flag up risk and bank management concerns when I introduced LIM trading and I have answered those concerns already but am keeping a close eye on how things develop if and when enough of us are playing that way to start influencing the market. Potentially the lay to back is a risk if we start swaying the market too much but I answered before with the reassurance that I am still selecting the lay to backs very carefully choosing those whose tissue is artificially low so that an expectation of market buoyancy on the price is realistic. 

So which was the greater risk in the past two days? The £27 liability no trade play at Bangor or the £72+ liability trade play at Kempton? I think the answer to that is very debatable and dependent on your style but I understand those who choose the £72 trade play as the greater risk. I personally don’t feel it is but that is because the whole exercise is dependent on my staking advices – which are always very bank management slanted – and because I am also relating risk to the race read that I have done. The one crucial thing to state however which has come up in a couple of individual conversations but which I have perhaps not emphasised in the group mail is that should the risk I have assessed in the lay to back go awry because of an incorrect market prediction, the advice is to cash out and accept the small loss and not carry the £72 liability of Monday’s play into an in race situation in the hope that it will run a stinker. Unless I have indicated clearly that I expect that or you have found evidence yourself to expect it. In play trading is for the strong fancies on the to follow list in my view.In general anyways. Some exceptions as they arise I know. But no real place for it on the LIM as we have been playing so far. I think perhaps I have not been clear enough on that. If I’m proved wrong and rather than drift out so we can hedge, the artificially low price steams even lower because the stable know something my form study has not shown, you do need to exercise damage limitation. Obviously I thought but perhaps not obviously to those not au fait with trading thinking.

That scenario hasn’t really come up the four weeks or so we’ve been playing this way. Because I’ve been sharp and getting my market predictions mostly right. You saw that with Monday’s. The race reads on the flat have been going this way and that. The market reads not so. Not yet anyway. Not wanting to tempt fate!

Which brings us back to whether the Sunday £27 traditional race read play was the greater risk or the £72 trade one on Monday. Both can go wrong if the read isn’t accurate. I say from my point of view and experience that the traditional play is the greater risk. Why I therefore staked it at lower. That’s partly because of the current climate but mainly a reflection of my assessment of our bank and management situation. That does make me more of a trader than a gambler in general I know.

I have been flagging that for a couple of years now. The trading approach does make sense to me. I grant that it takes more work and time and as I’ve said before, I get more aesthetic pleasure from gambling. LIM however is an investment scheme/approach to betting made possible by the exchanges. 

I’ve liked the way the past 28 days has been a consistent profit plus rather than the more normal yoyo two steps forward one step back type thing. That may well be because of being a tipster has been mighty tough of late. It will get easier no doubt and I certainly hope. Worth getting used to the trading approach however and the extra work it entails. I think it is here to stay. Certainly as our back up when the going gets tough.Over to you for your comments.

Meanwhile back to gambling over the jumps in the 1-20 at Southwell! New Quay’s form LTO has held up well but the Skelton horses are still very in and out and often in need of the run and this one not guaranteed I don’t think to appreciate the step up in trip.Ground might also need juice.

Stamina and distance not a problem to Mr Mafia who had a blow out over hurdles a fortnight back and is reunited with Johnson again here who won on him last time he sat on him off similar mark. Should just have the fitness edge for me although you can give a chance to As You Like – and Forth Bridge is one I’ll be watching closely with a view to the to follow list. Rare runner over jumps for the Queen who lost his way last season after impressing early doors.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on NEW QUAY (around 3.8)

0.05pt BACK on MR MAFIA (around 7.0)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Sandown(July 16) & Newbury(July 19)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh(Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric

Check My Pulse

Ginstrelli 

Balagan – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 16)

Perle Rose

Ashutor

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 16)

Beholden

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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