BOZmail – 14th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY JANUARY 14th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2.35 FFOS LAS

And so the winning lay streak ended at 18. Good tussle and jockey Rossa Ryan made the difference with the market also getting it right after initially flowing the opposite way. Mixboy’s inability to go the pace of the race sealed our fate although he did stay on well enough. We got value. Just didn’t win. Got to expect that sometimes still running at 18% above average but disappointing nevertheless. Always deflating and sealed a poor birthday weekend. The trick in this game, like most sports, lies between the ears. That one gone now. Look forward. Never look back.

Often get asked how I learned this game and why I can do it – what’s the one trick that makes the difference. Well the answer is I learned it mainly from two writers. Old man Tony Braddock and more recent guy Dave Nevison. Recommend them both. Read everything they ever wrote. But the one trick is also beautifully described in the book I’m reading now – a Xmas pressie from older son James – he of the podcast www.backstreetcoaches.co.uk if you ain’t listened to him yet. Sports chat and silliness for nights when you’re bored but you don’t wanna bet!

The book is THE GREATEST GAME EVER PLAYED by Mark Frost and is the story of the 1913 US Golf Open won in a thriller by American amateur Francis Ouimet and his 10 year old school truant caddy – Eddie Lowery – my new hero. The text is beautifully crafted and the characterisation of 10 year old Eddie – who became a millionaire businessman in adult life – profoundly and comically drawn. The ultimate outsider win is put down to Ouimet’s ability to play in a bubble. Nothing distracted him from his game and that one trait I recognise. I’ve known it all my life as a chessplayer. Never always sure how I achieve it but when I do, I play my best chess. Likewise I tip my best tips. Write my best writing. The days I do well here, I managed the bubble when sorting out my pick. The less good days, the bubble gets a slight puncture in it somewhere. Looking back I missed the significance of Rossa Ryan riding in yesterday’s pick. Had a second best at Kelso that did better. What caused the puncture and how can you guys notice it when you read my rationale. Well, if I knew the answer to that of course I’d tell you but I don’t. I have however had people reading my tipping rationales for 15 years now and a few tell me they spot the puncture sometimes. When they are checking what I wrote against the formbook. Worth knowing that I reckon but I wish they’d tell me so I could adjust my betting likewise!!

No puncture in the bubble on this one – first night of Australian Open tennis starts tonight and I always achieve the bubble after a loser. These days anyways.

That said it has been a tough day to decide on a strategy. Racing or tennis?

Here’s what I’ve gone with. Three races looked at and the 6-15 Wolverhampton does appeal for value purposes but ultimately I think the favourite should hold LTO form over Watermeet but I’m less sure of that than this at Ffos Las where Henderson’s What’swrongwithyou looks nailed on allowing a confident lay on The Last Day who is held on a line through OK Corral who was so impressive against our to follow horse on Saturday. We also have Potters Story as cover here who is on chase debut but may still prove a better jumper than The Last Day who has struggled on both chase occasions so far.

We got Whatswrongwithyou beaten at Haydock you may remember as he wilted on run in after jumping impressively. He’ll strip much fitter here and gets Nico on board to boot.

Steadying ship stake though after yesterday’s reverse.

Tennis summary below and a staggered acca play therefrom.

 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on THE LAST DAY

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 33/39 = 84.61% :   BACKS: 6/25 = 24%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 15.00 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ascot (Jan 19) & Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC  – Entered for Chepstow (Jan 18)

Nicolas Chauvin – Entered for Newcastle (Jan 15)

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Plumpton (Jan 16)

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for Musselburgh (Jan 18)

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS starting Sunday night at Midnight:

I am taking a Less is More approach to the tennis this year after a less impressive 2018 with the Australian Open in particular my least favourite play anyways with matches taking place early rounds through the night in the UK meaning dedicated matches for eyes for in play traders.I have made in play lists however as is my habit for those who are keen and intend to stay awake and detail thoughts below. FYI only. My only recommended first night bet this year is my first night banker acca which I enclose as the second leg of the new staggered acca listed below.

 

Inplay trading info:

Value against the book Back to lays on night one include:

Jelena Ostapenko (2.5)

Monica Puig (2.2)

Krystina Mladenovic (3.4)

Sachia Vickery (3.0)

Irina Begu (2.2)

 

Short price fav Lay to backs on night one include:

Caroline Wozniacki

Belinda Bencic

Kiki Bertens

 

                                      

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

 

Staggered acca number 4: (LEG 2)

0.25pt WIN on the following four-timer at Melbourne Park at around (2.14)

Angelique Kerber to beat Polona Hercog (1.07)

Marketa Vondrousova to beat Evgeyni Rodina (1.51)

Petra Kvitova to beat Magdalena Rybarikova (1.15)

Ash Barty to beat Luksika Kumkhum (1.11)

 

My first night bankers in the tennis. All four will need to win but all look nailed on with Vondrousova giving the value having beaten Rodina 3 times before.

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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