BOZmail – 14th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 14th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

3-10 FONTWELL

Well it was good to have it back! Felt like a brand new start and encouraged by the result but not complacent yet as there is obviously a bit of instability and messing about still going on BHA wise so the caution will remain. I was pretty confident that Good Man Pat was coming to win though. Were you? He nearly didn’t with the leg tangle and All Currencies ran the sort of race I thought he would. The one to take from the race as not top drawer maybe but gonna win races so very much one to put on the to follow. I was also waiting for the Good Man Pat appearance to confirm the form of that Master Dino race and it did just that – winning as he did – after getting very much interfered with by Midnight Tune’s fall. Did well to still run the final furlong at a quickening sprint on soft ground. Time of the race up there aswell so Master Dino,Knocknanuss and Good Man Pat also all make the to follow with Cheltenham in mind.

And my confidence that the best hurdler wasn’t shown as the best chaser in the form race read? Pleased with that. Good sign that the manky month since middle of January could now be done with. I’ve worked hard on the importance of breaking even in such a spell and it smells to me like the flu might have signified the end of it now.Certainly keen on this follow up to try and back the winning restart up.

Le Coeur Net is an appropriate shorty to take on on Valentine’s Day! Don’t go marrying your Valentine unless you are Le Coeur Net!

Horseracing wise I think he has it all to do to win this despite being unclearish about which of the other four might beat him. They all have a case to be made without any of them being an easy pick as a back.

But I start with Le Coeur Net’s negatives first. Effectively an 8lb penalty for the victory LTO at Ffos Las (taking in the 2lb difference to Rex Dingle’s claim) and arguably lucky to win there as the fall of the long time leader Air De Rock gave the race to him. Despite making ground at the time, I hadn’t been convinced Le Coeur had been going on to win. So that’s weight rise in a double whammy negative but the clincher for me is the fact that Triple Chief holds him on a form line through Exmoor Mist. Admittedly you have to allow for Triple Chief’s recent poor form but I think you can make a case for doing that given the stable he comes from. The Frosts tend to wait for the moment when the handicap mark is down to correct winning level again. That’s this race. It was February 2018 when he last won off 106.So his time of year too now. Won in Feb 2016 and early March 2017.The Frost stable is also 100% in last 14 days. 1/1 on an annual % rate of just 5% these days. But in the Boz’s view one of the top five jocks in England now on board for her Dad. No guarantee that Triple Chief will come back to form here but at 9/1, he’s value. Take the price asap. Distance could also be in favour as all but one of recent poor runs has been over further. Breeding suggests 2 and a half miles just a step too far.

Le Capriceux and Zen Master have lesser chances in my book and are no value at second and third fav but both do have chances due mainly to their trainers' records at Fontwell and the fact that the fav is a vulnerable one. Ratings have them both on a par with Le Coeur Net which I take more as a reason for laying the fav rather than backing either of them.

Not done with backing yet though because the rag is perhaps the clear value of the race at 12/1 (sure to be longer on Betfair). Keep this one close to your chest in case I’m right! The Mighty Ash didn’t excel as a hurdler and thus is being written off here but you always have to take note when the transition to Chases comes for some horses. Debut run has been written off by pundits as, and I quote, “nothing to write home about”. 14 and a half lengths behind in a Class 4 but that over 2 and a half miles when best hurdle effort had been at this distance of 2m 2f. Faded just final two furlongs in that race – a chase debut don’t forget – and who was the race winner?

Parlour Maid at 25/1 and if you’ve forgotten what he did for us NTO, maybe you’ve got a touch of equine flu! Beat Quantum of Solace in serious knuckle down fashion carrying the penalty making it on to the Boz’s to follow list for the effort. All horses from behind in that 25/1 win are now of interest. The Mighty Ash is one of those. Noonan on board and could be a serious dark horse. The Boz will be playing graduated stake on this. Some at 12/1 and better now but more at fancy Betfair prices tomorrow so long as we don’t send the alarm bells ringing. Take early money elsewhere if you can to protect the Betfair price. I could be wrong but I said the other day how 50% of LIM is about getting the right price. This is one of those. You might get 20/1 or 33/1 in a 5 horse race if you are canny. It still has to win but if you get 33/1 and it doesn’t, you’ve still done well!

  

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on LE COEUR NET (around 2.1 or poss odds on and no greater than 2.75)

0.1pt BACK on TRIPLE CHIEF (around 10.0 or greater)

0.075pt BACK on THE MIGHTY ASH (around 13.0 or greater)

0.01pt REVERSED FORECAST on THE MIGHTY ASH & TRIPLE CHIEF just in case I’m right!

 

Welcome back to UK racing! Where the back knowledge on the runners and the form does make a difference!

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 45/62 = 72.58% :   BACKS: 8/41 = 19.51%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14),Magners & Gold Cup (Mar 15)&National (Apr 6)

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Fontwell (Feb 14),Wincanton (Feb 16)& M.Rasen(Feb 17)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid

Good Man Pat – Entered for the JLT (Mar 14)

All Currencies

Master Dino*

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 3)

Awaiting next weapons grade selection. Will shout when it appears.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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