BOZmail – 14th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 14th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.2293 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.1029 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Friday play

3-20 FAKENHAM

First half of February nearly over and I’m not going to disagree with anybody who says UK racing is currently descending into farce. I’m not really one for making excuses when I can’t get things together but the weather is becoming a real issue these days as we hear that this weekend’s attempt to put things straight after Storm Ciara are now threatened again by the impending Storm Dennis. I know the Brits have a tendency to dramatize their extreme weather but the sight of horses running around chase fences instead of over them on a regular basis now just to get meetings on is a worry. I read a scientist the other day with a passion for horse racing saying that climate change will see off NH racing in the UK within the next ten years. Hope I’m in a box under the ground before it happens! Doom merchants used to be a feature of racecourse car parks when I was a kid trolling round after my Dad in the Midlands rings. ‘The end of the world is nigh’ placards were a fixture then. Be strange if 50 years later they turn out to not be crackpots after all!

That rumination brought on by the sight of Quick Wave jumping like a drunken kangaroo in Thursday’s LIM so that he whizzed out to 100/1 in running and was easily gettable at 13.5/1 except that I was so gobsmacked by what I’d just seen her do that I missed my trading chance and wasn’t too fussed (don’t usually trade LIM races anyways) as horses very rarely recover from that kind of horlicks. Actually sitting on top of the fence for a moment or two! Might mean she’s a good ‘un that she did recover and pretty quickly too so that I never even managed the 6/1 once my jaw had finally snapped back into place. Goes on my to follow for it with a question mark besides because the recovery was obviously aided by not having to jump half the fences in the race (the farce of an NH flat race in all but name which we have seen so often this winter) and because the race was anyway decimated by two absentees who didn’t fancy the ground and the flatness of the contest. Can hardly blame them!

I was sorting out Friday’s race just after when the horse I earmarked for backing at Fakenham turned up on the TV screen in front of me running in Thursday’s 3-00 at Leicester. Eeeh, the weather causes a right ruckus as my Mother used to say.

Of course January and February are famous for it and we were in the middle of equine flu this time last year so panicking I am not. Still in front despite five bad days and three no play days. Consistency pretty dismal but losing we are not. And it’ll soon be March and Cheltenham Festival time. Second half of February is almost always an improvement (he said nervously looking at the black sky outside! I think maybe the apocalypse really has turned up outside my window!) starting with this Handicap Chase at Fakenham which I actually like the look of and will be attacking once more with my double lay despite the almost certain defection of Clondaw Westie who was an outsider I fancied but ran yesterday in the Mickey Mouse meeting at Leicester!

Front two in the market were both LTO winners so carry their 8lb and 7lb penalties respectively but have other doubts also to make me think that one of the three opponents – all of whom look potential winners to me with that fact well disguised in their form – could do us the same favour Tigray did on Wednesday.

Tissue has just appeared and is nothing at all like I was expecting (another of the hassles of this time of year) with one of my outsiders – Alan King’s Senior Citizen – the 9/4 fav. He is my idea of the winner after his promising debut at Doncaster with much more to be expected after that run and from a stable just likely to be getting into swing as we approach Festival time. Holds the two LTO winners on my time figures with Rizzardo also not sure to be suited by the ground.

Despite the loss of my value back, I’m going to stick to my double lay on Pookie Pekan and Rizzardo and switch the small back to one of the other two in the field – both of whom are very interesting. Commis D’Office has a similar profile to Venetia’s winner yesterday in its French background and may have similar jumping issues but if like Quick Wave, able to largely overcome them, may well have the speed to nick this at the death.

It’s to It’safreebee that I turn however now for my value bet. He was a to follow horse for the Bozmail when in the care of the Skeltons and ran some seriously impressive novice chases including one behind Waiting Patiently no less and several good black type efforts over hurdles and fences before losing his way somewhat and being transferred to the Richard Spencer yard. Richard re-invented him and got a couple of flat wins out of him and takes him back jumping now at Fakenham where he has won before. I remember that race where he beat Rolling Maul and our old mate The Jugopolist in a hack canter as the 3/10 fav. Get back to that and he’ll murder these and the comeback LTO was encouraging to a degree. Obviously he needs to come back further but that is a possible and the booking of Bowen is a positive. The 12/1 is an insult if he is back to old form so we’ll have that. I suspect that is because he is perceived to not like soft ground on recent runs but if you look back further, he was ok with it in his junior days. Don’t think that will be his excuse if he doesn’t run a big one.

The prices I have here on Pookie Pekan and Rizzardo are longer because Clondaw Westie is still in the market but I’m pretty sure he won’t run again (if he does, he has a chance!) so don’t lay either much above 3/1. But at that, it is a reasonable play.

Happy Valentine’s Day which is I think well described by It’safreebee!

Recommendations:

0.1pt LAY on POOKIE PEKAN (around 4.0 : upper value parameter 4.5)

0.1pt LAY on RIZZARDO (around 4.0 or less : upper value parameter 4.5)

0.05pt BACK on IT’SAFREEBIE (around 15.0 or better if you can get it)

 LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 5/9 = 55.55%  Backs: 1/4 = 25%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – Entered for Ascot (Feb 15)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Haydock (Feb 15), Exeter (Feb 16) & Ballymore (Mar 11), 

                       Albert Bart (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Haydock (Feb 15) & Exeter (Feb 16)

Normandy Soldier* – Entered for Ascot (Feb 15)

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Navan (Feb 16) &Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Ascot&Wincanton(Feb 15) & Exeter (Feb 16) &

                                    the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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