BOZmail – 14th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

FRIDAY DECEMBER 14th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

12-45 CHELTENHAM

Often get asked what led me to devising the LIM way of playing and the last two days answers it as well as any! Getting chinned on the line is terrible when you are backing horses but there’s some consolation when you end up still making a profit. My race read pretty accurate Thursday and the tactical staking a success. Just the result that was wrong! Market watchers however will have seen the stable confidence in the horse I said might need more time and adjusted play accordingly perhaps. Even with the big gamble on the Jonjo horse I still thought we had him beat over the last. Hey ho. I’m suffering a frustrating time with my backs but the profit inches forward again.Welcome to LIM. After a year of it, you’ll be used to the concept of what my Dad used to call ‘ winning out of losing’!

I sometimes prefer the days with only one qualifying LIM race of six runners or less as they take away the choice of race issue. I had big trouble with that for Friday where there is almost a whole card of qualifiers at Doncaster and I’ve been through them all with a tooth comb and not found  a good enough one to divert me from this race at Cheltenham which is also not easy but which keeps drawing me back in.

The big three are all close and Gunfleet is far from out of it and there is no clear horse to be sure will finish behind but I’m ultimately going against Lil Rockerfeller who does have form I like over Wenyerreadyfreddie but who is also on a line with Hoo Bally Diva who we got well beat last week and comes out on my time figures behind The World’s End and Ibis du Rheu. The World’s End was the best hurdler and won his chase debut well but, along with Lil Rockerfeller, didn’t jump the Cheltenham fences that well. Does get weight from the other two here though and that could tell. On an 8lb turnaround for defeat by Ibis du Rheu LTO and that should define them with just a couple of lengths between them and those poor jumps. A better round favours the Tom George inmate but stable quiet so just when I think I’ve found my angle in this race, it jumbles me again.

Price and value determine me in the end and both of those do belong to Ibis du Rheu who is 9/2 as I write and have that factor alongside that Nicholls is coming back in against same opposition which he rarely does unless he thinks he’s got something which will enable the form to be upheld (if it needs upholding as it does here) or can be turned over if that is required. That factor and my need for a race winner to boost my %s encourages me to back in this race. I do also think my time figures between the top two weighted favouring the Nicholls inmate (and quite markedly) means Lil Rockerfeller is definitely my lay.

It has taken a lot of getting to though and as such I’m not staking up.

 

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on LIL ROCKERFELLER

0.1pt BACK on IBIS DU RHEU

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 11/13 = 84.61%

                                                         BACKS: 1/8 = 12.5%

 

**************************************************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 2:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Joe Cullen available to lay at 80.0 this morning on Betfair so those that do like to play risk free and got the 100/1 I recommended can hedge out now for a free bet over

the Xmas period. I personally will be hanging on until after first game played – which I expect him to win –  with a view to hedging out with profit to use on the second leg of the staggered acca.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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