BOZmail 14th DECEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

MONDAY DECEMBER 14th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 121/172 = 70.34%  Backs : 35/108 = 32.40%

12-48 PLUMPTON

Captain Fantastic was your early Xmas present and I’m only sorry it wasn’t more and that Saturday’s untimely reverse hadn’t happened when it did. For the second time this month. I’d been planning to go gung ho on Lady Bowes too. Bank management does get made to look most unseemly at such times when it puts you off putting your shirt on your strongest fancies. And Lady B & Captain Z were that. A marriage made in heaven I’d say. Their kids are going to be wunderkind Frankel types!!

Except that poor old Captain Z lost his tackle before his racing career began! Imagine what that must be like?? I cannot. I doubt I’d run my heart out for any sod that did that to me!

And so we content with gradual progress. December has been stop start. Two steps forward one step back. Head down now to try and see the rest of this infernal year out with a winning streak! Summat in the pot again anyways to up the ante with. Now just to find more strong fancies. Hope I haven’t just used up my quota! Does look quite quiet on the quality front until we hit next weekend’s Ascot meet. Often the way of course with the Xmas lull before the storm. Let’s see if we can’t invoke BOZmail rule number one for a few days!

And I’ve chosen this race for that purpose. You know how I like three runner races!

Common sense might prefer the 1-53 Handicap Chase where Gary Moore’s fav does have some question marks. I’ve looked long and hard at that as well and do think on another day I might have opposed Benevolent Dictator. But on balance I prefer being with Gary Moore rather than against him at Plumpton (and in general) and the second from his charge’s debut Chase win at Lingfield won well at Bangor on Friday boosting the form. So although the Dictator has some question marks regarding carrying penalty and step back up in trip where he didn’t excel as a hurdler, I also think he may well beat this motley crew simply because he’ll show the greater prowess over chase fences. We’ll see.

In any case I was already quite keen on this three runner race because it has a 50-1 shot in it! You know how I love a 50-1 shot (just gone 66-1 and no doubt longer again on Betfair) in a three runner race. Not landed one of them yet in 2020 and not much time left! And this is where bank management can work in your favour. After Sunday we can afford a punt! Won’t need to be a big stake one at that price!

And Battle Anthem is not a total no hoper. My detractors do sometimes bemoan my ability to back one that runs ‘out the back of the telly’ and it’s true I, like all serious tipsters who scout for value, will pick one that wasn’t really a viable winner with hindsight. When I get my reason for picking wrong or all the others stand up! And that’s it with NH racing. You get horses that fall over. Favourites as much as outsiders. No discrimination there. Those that remember my last big LIM outsider The Jugopolist (March 2019 at Huntingdon) will remember that the odds on shot fell early to help that cause. The well touted second fav also ran shockingly below capabilities. It happens. Especially in a British winter!

And we might need that here for Battle Anthem to win. Possibility is that he is a point to pointer thirty seconds or more so behind these Rules guys. But I’m not certain about that from study of the on paper form. I wouldn’t put him up if I was. Two of the three rules races have been against scorchingly hot opposition. LTO was behind Shiskin and whilst that was a long 72 lengths behind, Shiskin is basically the best jumper in training at the moment so no real disgrace in that. And that and his ‘disappointing’ Rules race behind Espoir De Romay where he was pulled up not keeping up with the pace was on good to quickish ground. His PTP form says he’ll do better on soft and in any case his LTO was an improvement to be not pulled up behind Shishkin! And point to pointers have to be given chance to adapt to Rules pace. Some can cope after a few tries learning what is required. Early yet to say he is one who won’t (some certainly never do). His first time out Rules race was a black type. Talk about chucking in at the deep end! He bled from the nose in that which is further excuse (may have been caused by the shock of the speed he was being asked to go!!) and the fact that he was entered in that suggests they thought he may have something special for the Rules game. Richard Rowe not unknown for that and I’d say nothing we’ve seen yet proves that isn’t the case. He did win three PTPS – two of them on soft ground and the one on good ground was done in a time that wouldn’t have been a disgrace under Rules. I say he could be a dark horse! Same sort of 50-50 chance that he could also be an out the back of the telly merchant!

The two he takes on aren’t superstars. Acey Milan won well enough on Chase debut at Aintree but was categorically put in his place NTO when beaten in the black type at Newbury that we supported Hold the Note in. Hot race perhaps but beaten 47 lengths and behind Hold the Note who we now know is currently disappointing. That form puts Acey Milan about level with Battle Anthem behind Shiskin on paper (give or take 25 lengths!) and one is 4/7 fav and the other 66/1! Not a rocket science collateral comparison but you know what The Boz thinks about things like that.

And we have the Gary Moore Full Back as our LIM cover. He also gets 5lb from the penalised Acey Milan – reduced 3lb by Rex Dingle’s claim – and can be argued to be badly in at the weights on his Coolanly form from Fontwell but that was over half a mile shorter. This step up should bring improvement to him as a Sinndar and he has the Josh Moore in the saddle advantage and the Gary Moore training plus. Both are worth a few pound especially at Plumpton. He wouldn’t be a bet for me at 11/8 and Acey Milan could win this easily at 4/7 if going back to the Aintree form. But 4/7 is a tad short. I had 4/5 on my tissue. I think he is justifiable fav but favs do underperform and they also fall! He has the speed and the stamina to win this on the book but has a morale sapping performance LTO to overcome (not to be underestimated) and was in any case not an exceptional hurdler. Just a decent one.

For the record, when I did my tissue before I saw the official one I had Battle Anthem at 25/1. I’ll confess I’m in this race because of the 66/1 that could go over 100.0 on the exchanges if we don’t scare anyone off. Play modestly in increments is the advice. We are not putting much on anyways. No need to at these prices and on the back of Captain Fantastic!

I wish us all good luck and Bon Voyage. Enjoy it whatever the outcome!

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on ACEY MILAN (around 1.7 and lower if you can get it)

0.05pt BACK on BATTLE ANTHEM (around 67.0 and as high as you can go!! Fly baby,fly!!) 

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang – Entered for Ascot (Dec 18)

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands – Entered for Ascot (Dec 18)

Dusart – Entered for Ascot (Dec 18)

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow 

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +53.7766points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 33.5284 points (+13.5284 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 50.1987 points (+42.1987 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1985 points (-0.8015 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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