BOZmail – 14th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY AUGUST 14th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

3-40 NEWTON ABBOT

Written my US Open tennis preview early cos the time to get on laying Serena is now for those into that kind of thing. See below for the full spec and remember if you do follow my outrights portfolio, I do play it as a trading exercise taking better odds than I’ve taken when offered (with discretion) and in particular always looking to lay Serena back in play whenever she has a dip or loses a set as she inevitably does at the moment. Using my 2019 tennis winnings as my initial stake for this play, looking to bump it up in the final slam event of 2019 starting on August 25th/26th.

Meanwhile a return to jump racing for LIM. Hurrah! And a beginners chase at Newton Abbot.

Asylo would be the one to like the softer ground but drying weather around again now although rain forecast in the Devon area tonight and tomorrow morning so his Flemensfirth stamina might prevail and stake caution again if indeed the heavy rain materialises. Was surprised to see him such a short and strong fav on the tissue but I’m guessing that the weather is why. He ran second LTO in our Francky du Berlais Acca race but that race was not speedily run and of the front two, Skelton’s NotNow Seamus is preferred albeit that his jumping may need sharpening. Unusually ragged on debut for a Skelton inmate.

Leaving the way open for the ex-Gordon Elliot inmate De Plotting Shed who is potentially a bit better than these. Became disappointing in Ireland after promising top drawer in early hurdle races but his UK debut over fences was promising enough for Suzi Best. Her stable could be in better form but building on that effort might be good enough here and certainly value to my eyes at 4/1. Quite keen.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on ASYLO (around 2.2 ; not greater than 2.5)

0.15pt BACK on DE PLOTTING SHED (around 5.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 145/215 = 67.44% :   BACKS: 42/147 = 28.57%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You 

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Hungerford,Newbury (Aug 17) & Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

Piedita

James Watt

Lord of the Lodge – Entered in the Gimcrack at York (Aug 23)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.22 points.

Staggered acca number 17: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the final staggered acca first leg emerges. Have an alternative approach use of the bank lined up to start in the Autumn. Never afraid to admit defeat.

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  US OPEN PREVIEW:
THE FIRST AND THE LAST FLUSH OF YOUTH 

‘ I don’t even expect her to make the final in Melbourne ‘ was how I started 2019 on the issue of a ‘washed up’ Serena Williams. Whilst I haven’t yet found a winner of a 2019 women’s slam (largely because no outsiders have prevailed) I go to the final slam of the year at Flushing Meadows next week seeking my own grand slam of getting all four lays in one year correct. Serena in Melbourne and London and Simona in Paris. 

And, somewhat unbelievably, the oddsmakers are asking me to take on Serena again for the US open offering her at 6.4 the lay as I write. That of course because she did cause a few tremors at SW19 after looking a surefire seeded exit in the second round against youngster Kaja Juvan who took the second set off Serena and seriously had her chance to pull the upset. Serena looked crocked but then the legend of the past  twenty years in women’s tennis waved that magic wand of hers and, coupled with the assistance of a top half of the draw collapsing around her, she found herself in the final. Playing better tennis as well by that stage courtesy of some celebrity doubles with Andy Murray that did indeed sharpen her up. Even so, you have to feel that Kerber’s early exit, Barty’s shock defeat to Alison Riske and Konta beating Kvitova only to then lose herself to Barbora Strycova pretty much rolled a red carpet down for Queen Serena and invited her to come get that much desired record equalling slam title that she has craved now for so long. She’ll not have a better chance. Hands up those who hedged out of their Wimbledon lay on Serena? Despite what I wrote, my hand is in the air. I don’t take risks with betting if I don’t have to and whilst there was a whiff of a new Simona Halep on grass in the air, I looked at Serena’s 9-1 head to head over the Romanian and cashed out my chips! 

Hindsight is a wonderful thing because having seen the Simona demolition job that was the revolutionary 2019 SW19 final, my January predictions were pretty much vindicated. Halep has beefed up her serve, plays now with a profound sense of mature self belief and quite simply ran Serena’s 37 year old legs off the court. As one sided a final as Serena has ever played in and that coming after the two finals she made in 2018 which I highlighted in that January write up as indicative of how much now the pack have caught up with Serena. First Kerber,then Osaka, then Pliskova in Melbourne and Kenin in Paris topped by the wipeout from Simona Halep. On grass. 

Sound like the favourite for the US Open to you? I’m gobsmacked. I really am. Halep is second fav at 9/1 and that has to be one of the strongest second fav’s in sporting history based on the collateral form of that recent encounter. 

Since I wrote the above, Serena appeared in the Rogers Cup tournament in Toronto – in itself a statement that she is still taking very seriously the chance of getting that record breaking slam. Turning up for this slam fit and ready. And to be fair to her, the early rounds were impressive and the quarter final ‘revenge win’ over Osaka was vintage Serena. Mentally she was magnificent in that match, hitting hard through Osaka for a straight sets win. The Japanese youngster played well but couldn’t match the ferocious hitting and got her first taste of Serena playing the A game from the other side of the net. I was starting to think I might have to temper my enthusiasm to oppose her at Flushing Meadows but the next two rounds bore out the frailties. A great deal had gone into being unbeatable against Osaka – something she can certainly still do in a one off match environment – and playing next day against the even younger Bouzkova – who was having a brilliant tournament herself – Serena struggled to hit the lines and lost the first set before seriously gritting her teeth to win the next two sets 6-3 6-3. Real backs to the wall stuff and you saw her grimace. That transpired to be a return of the back spasms that plague her now. They are temporary but surely a sign of the body protesting at the punishment it is taking. They flared up in a big way again in the final against Andreescu in which Serena took the almost unprecedented decision to retire at 3-1 down in the first set. She knows the problem and insists it is a transitory thing that she hopes will settle for the upcoming seven in a row she hopes to win in the US Open.  

I can’t see it. This is a high class speed sport and the opposition is fierce now. They can beat her when she is fit and they know how to get her stamina weaknesses exposed now. Add to that the nerves she shows when she plays in front of the US crowd. I think they will have to give it to her and I don’t see that happening. She’s a clean lay at 6.4 and I’m posting early without knowing the results in Cincinnati. I may update when I have those but the advice is to lay Serena now. Her price is steady despite the injury troubles in Canada. I think it will drift in the lead up (that’s if she plays at all – there has to be some doubt about that as well now although she is entered at Cincinnati and due to play Diyas as I write.)    

Of course we are talking women’s tennis. Halep was fav and successful Boz lay in Paris despite the much vaunted players for surfaces theory that has indeed come totally unstuck at the past two slams. Barty the grass specialist winning on clay (and bombing out on grass) and Halep the clay and hard courter winning on grass after a miserable defence of her title on clay. Women’s tennis in the modern day can be like that. Consistency isn’t something you see all that much of! 

There is indeed a moment however in the great players’ development when they transcend surface bias. Halep just hit that and in my book she is screaming red hot fav going into Flushing Meadows so the lay on Serena is very much on again. If I said I was confident in January that the pack has caught up, despite the Wimbledon scare, I’m even more confident now. She will need a deal more than assistance from the draw to win seven games in a row at this level throughout the next fortnight.  

Two areas I look to for my attempt at the outright winners at value prices and thus pre-tournament backs for the 2019 US Open. Longshots as ever for me and two key categories: 1/ Sizzling hot young players coming through and 2/ home grown USA candidates for succession to Serena’s crown.   

I start with two players who fit both categories. Wimbledon 15 year old sensation Cori Gauff and Boz tipped semi-finalist from Roland Garros Amanda Anisimova. Both have now had their blooding in a slam with Gauff losing at Wimbledon to subsequent champ Halep and Anisimova losing from a winning position in the French Open semi against subsequent champ Ash Barty. 

Both are in that bubble of possible bounce factor at such a young emotional development age. I actually had both as favs to win those respective matches because when the youthful flush is on to such a degree as it was with those two, with the quality of their tennis so spectacularly high, the tendency is for the flush of youth to prevail. Both succumbed to the calm wisdom of experience – hard earned in Halep’s case – and newly found and subsequently lost again at Wimbledon by Barty – herself still only 22 and like Osaka, calling herself ‘far from a champion’. 

What chance that Gauff or Anisimova already have what it takes to go all the way depends on their reactions to those two defeats.Lessons learned or damaging psychological scars? Anisimova  has had time to wrestle with hers already in the months since the French Open. She has lost three matches that she would have perhaps been expected to win since based on her form in Paris so that you could argue that she is indeed in bounce time but none of the defeats has been histrionic and there have been four victories so that more likely she is working her way through what happened to her in France and is learning therefrom. And the form was hot. Remember that it was she that took out defending champion Halep in straight sets. Line that form up with the Wimbledon final and see what is possible in the future! 

Yes, she could prove a Bouchard or an Ivanovic to whom the first flush came a little too early. It was a knee trembler type meltdown she suffered against Barty but on balance I’d say I’ve seen some stern stuff since to suggest that come her next opportunity against the top ten players, she’ll be able to steel herself and do to them again what she did on the clay at Roland Garros. 

That assertion comes stronger with Cori Gauff however. Given how young she is and how she handled herself mentally at Wimbledon. The comeback against Hercog had vibrations of a young Petra Kvitova about it. Pure bulldog spirit. No knee trembling meltdown against Halep either. More a health/nerves issue on the day that had her unable to achieve any power in her hitting. No sign of that in the matches against Venus nor Rybarikova where the hitting and the move to victory was clinical. I’m confident a line can be drawn under the game v Halep. She was taught a lesson that day by a champ-to-be playing out of her skin throughout the tournament and I get the clear signal that that is a lesson Gauff is capable of soaking up and quickly assimilating. Strong sense that she is a bet you have to be on at Flushing Meadows. 

My other two backs are in the Yankees on home soil category in the shape of Danielle Collins and Sofia Kenin.  

The latter is in the similar category to Gauff and Anisimova but that bit older and more experienced with tournament wins under her belt and perhaps a smidgeon less of the sizzling hot talent of the former two. Following her run to the fourth round at Roland Garros (where she also lost to the would be champ Barty) she took out Andreescu(by default mind) and Serena before going to Mallorca on grass straight after and beating Mertens,Sevastova and Bencic to lift the title. That was a classy announcement that she had arrived and whilst it has plateaued out a bit since, Kenin is now back on home soil which I think is something that works well in her favour. She looks set to make another mark in a slam draw soon and I have her as a strong back to lay here at 66/1. Collins is my outsider pick at 250/1 and I still reel when I think of the form she showed in her last hardcourt slam in Melbourne. Boy did she come across as the feisty Yankee in that tournament where she took out Goerges,Garcia,Kerber and Pavlyuchenkova before losing in the semi to Kvitova. The first set of that match is etched in my memory as a classic tussle settled on tie break that Collins did not handle particularly well mentally. Lost it 7-2 and wilted away the second set 6-0 almost in a fit of pique with herself. That doesn’t bode all that well for ever winning a slam and her form since has been decidedly average with just the occasional spark that she is ready for another test of her nerve. And on hard court and in home land looks to me where that might happen. At 250/1, a seriously good back to lay opportunity. At 25 years of age, she has the edge in physical maturity over the others I’ve selected and that may just make up for the lesser tennis talent that she also displays but which she also makes up for in feist. When her tail is up, opponents have a tendency to step out of her way! 

There are a few other youngsters to keep your eyes on at Flushing Meadows. Iga Swiatek is finding the transition to top 50 player quite tough but progresses still (served 8 aces in the Cincinnati defeat of Caroline Garcia) and her latent talent counter remains pretty high.300/1 as I write and that is good value back to lay material if she carries on winning in Cincinnati. Likewise Catherine McNally who has just started playing doubles with Cori Gauff. Their brand of the game was exhilarating to watch at Washington where they lifted the title as an unseeded pair. Make no mistake whatsoever that these two are likely to be on your singles radar for many years to come. Bianca Andreescu is also back and won the Rogers Cup courtesy of that default v Serena. She was majestic throughout and that is reflected in her price now (best price 18/1) and she does still have need to protect her body issues so I’m prepared to leave her at that price. The sky is the limit for her too mind if the body stays uninjured.  

And finally who is on my list of short pricers to lay who cannot win at Flushing Meadows? Well, I’m a bit loathe to exercise this service after what happened at Roland Garros and Wimbledon where surface specialists got routed. However I would be clear that Muguruza and Kvitova are unlikely winners on the surface. 

Osaka as the defending champion has to refind her mojo after an awful summer season and likewise Barty has to recover from her SW19 dip. In general though, the one to lay at Flushing meadows 2019 is the lady in her last flush of youth. Long live the Queen! 

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA at around 6.4 

0.25pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA at 40/1 

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF at 80/1 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN at 66/1 

0.25pt BACK ON DANIELLE COLLINS at 250/1  

Gary Boswell 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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