BOZmail 14th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY AUGUST 14th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.1628 points (+2.1628 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.5927 points (+6.5927 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.705 points (-0.295 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +7.4615 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +11.7491 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 40/51 = 78.43%  Backs : 7/24 = 29.16%

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LESS IS MORE:

CHESTER 2-40

Things remain unstable with a two runner race at Salisbury today and having watched how French Racing is coping with the number capped crowds back in, I remain mystified as to why the UK continues with its disruptive policies. No NH racing for 4 days then every day from Sunday to Wednesday next week and from a quiet week this, the BOZmail lurches to a busy week next. I shall be working flat out to try to make it a lucrative few days with my grip on NH racing now clearer but the flat I continue to treat with distinct caution despite several theoretical LIM races to choose from on Friday after our non runner on Thursday. All those I looked at seem trappy to me in traditional LIM terms so I stick to the trades of the flat and take on this fav of Mark Johnston’s at Chester. Looks very short to me going up in class against Calcutta Cup who comes down a grade and must surely be a danger. I actually like Topper Bill’s chance as well with the presumed reasons for the fav’s market price being his favoured draw and the boosting of his LTO form with second Pythagoras winning since. Still too short in the market to back and I would expect a drift on the price thus ideal for the trade.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on CHASE THE DOLLAR (around even money. Take at shorter if possible and hedge out as appropriate when preferential odds are offered)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar 

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse – Entered for Uttoxeter (Aug 17)

Balagan – Entered for Market Rasen (Aug 16) & Uttoxeter (Aug 17) 

Ashutor – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Sangha River – Entered for Uttoxeter (Aug 17) & Stratford (Aug 19)

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi – Entered for Uttoxeter (Aug 17) & Fontwell (Aug 18)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Uttoxeter (17) & Fontwell (18) & Stratford (19)

El Presente – Entered for Market Rasen (Aug 16)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Samsons Reach

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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