BOZmail – 14th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY APRIL 14th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-10 STRATFORD

Job done in terms of eradicating the four day losing streak loss. Now to get back to trying to build the month’s plus. Got a nailed on to follow horse in the Hunter Chase at Wincanton that starts possibly my last go at a staggered acca for the year (see below). That aspect of the service hasn’t gone to plan and suffered several calamitous reverses. In the review I’m undergoing I might decide to save the workload it creates and use the time elsewhere. More news on that anon. For now, one last attempt at getting it going into profit. Not lost faith in the bet approach but it does need more patience than I am perhaps prepared to give it at the moment hence the possibility of shelving it whilst losses are still only small. But we’ll see how this final attempt goes first.

Meanwhile to get the LIM monthly back on track, I’ve selected this handicap chase at Stratford where Henderson had the initial tissue fav off bottom weight but as I write, it has drifted to second fav in light of support for Kerry Lee’s Town Parks. I was considering a double lay play on the both although the second time out after wind op on the Henderson horse (and an improved performance LTO at Ludlow) was troubling me a tad so I may now focus on just a single lay on Town Parks who I would suggest is going to dislike this quicker ground. Form clearly shows best efforts to be when juice is in the ground and on a line through Gortroe Joe, Town Parks is held by The Bottom Bar anyways although that form might be unreliable as Gortroe Joe may have injured himself before being pulled up in TBB’s LTO race where TBB did show improved form after the wind op. On balance though, now I’ve seen prices and decided to lay just one of the two likely co-favs, I’m happier to lay Town Parks.

The value back in the race is Stamp your Feet who is inconsistent and a maiden over fences and has to be forgiven a poor run LTO but does have a faster time over this distance and ground than either of the front two and may just be able to benefit from the conditions with his stable running well in the to form ratings at present. Both Holbrook Park and Western Miller would also not be out of things if putting their best foot forward.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on TOWN PARKS (around 2.75 ; not greater than 3.4)

0.1pt BACK on STAMP YOUR FEET

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 82/118 = 69.49% :   BACKS: 18/76 = 23.68%

NH HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Southfield Vic – Entered for Wincanton Sunday

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top – Entered for Wincanton Sunday

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 8.75 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 1)

4-35 WINCANTON – SOUTHFIELD VIC – 0.5pt BACK @ 4/5

Looks a good thing to follow up decent last two runs at the expense of Woodfleet.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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